Citi lifts AP Moller Maersk stock rating, raises target

On Wednesday, Citi analyst Arthur Truslove revised the rating for AP Moller Maersk (MAERSKB:DC) (OTC: AMKBY (OTC:AMKBY)), upgrading the stock from Sell to Neutral. Accompanying this upgrade, the price target was increased to DKK 11,093.00, up from the previous DKK 9,500.00. The adjustment reflects a new perspective on the company’s valuation and financial position. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has shown strong momentum with a 7.6% return over the past week and maintains a "GREAT" overall financial health score of 3.26 out of 5.

Truslove’s commentary highlighted that, based on various valuation methods such as EV/sales, P/B, and EV/IC, AP Moller Maersk’s stock is currently trading at a lower valuation than it has been at any point from 2009 to 2019. Current metrics from InvestingPro support this view, with the stock trading at a P/B ratio of 0.44 and a P/E ratio of 4.23. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading below its intrinsic value. Subscribers can access 12 additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics through the Pro Research Report.

The analyst pointed out a significant shift in the company’s financials, with its net debt position turning from a $12.5 billion debt to a $6.4 billion net cash position. This improved financial position is reflected in the company’s strong current ratio of 2.45 and its 34-year track record of consistent dividend payments, currently yielding 6.49%. Truslove’s assessment acknowledges the current uncertainties surrounding industry fundamentals, particularly in the ocean freight sector.

The Citi analyst also took into account the consensus from Visible Alpha, which indicates an expectation of three consecutive years of EBIT losses for AP Moller Maersk’s Ocean division. Despite these projections, Truslove noted that the shipping industry has seen considerable consolidation recently, which could lead to more scrapping and idling of ships, as well as an increased ability to adapt to challenging market conditions.

Truslove’s upgrade suggests a tempered view of the risks facing AP Moller Maersk, acknowledging both the concerns about trade demand and fleet development and the potential for the industry to respond effectively to these challenges. The revised price target and stock rating reflect a nuanced understanding of the company’s current valuation and its prospects within the broader context of the shipping industry.

In other recent news, AP Moller Maersk reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with EBITDA reaching USD3.6 billion, significantly higher than the USD0.8 billion recorded in 2023. This contributed to a total EBITDA of USD12.1 billion for 2024, marking it as the company’s third-best year on record. Maersk’s quarterly free cash flow also improved, increasing to USD2.2 billion, which was supported by working capital adjustments and reduced capital expenditures. The company’s net cash position grew to USD7.4 billion from USD4.7 billion year-over-year. In light of these strong results, Maersk’s management proposed a dividend per share of DKK1,220 and announced a USD2.0 billion share buyback program.

Despite these positive developments, CFRA downgraded Maersk’s stock from Buy to Hold, citing potential downward pressure on freight rates due to the anticipated reopening of the Red Sea. The analyst also adjusted the 2025 earnings per share forecast to USD39.83 from USD45.00 and introduced a 2026 EPS estimate of USD17.50. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintained its Underweight rating on Maersk, with a price target of DKK12,200, emphasizing concerns over a potential downturn in freight rates and additional risks such as tariff impacts on global trade. Both CFRA and Morgan Stanley highlighted that these factors could influence Maersk’s future financial performance.

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