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On Wednesday, Citi reaffirmed its positive stance on HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA:LN) (NYSE: NYSE:HSBC), with analyst Andrew Coombs standing by the Buy rating and a price target of GBP9.60. The reaffirmation follows a period of unexpected market reaction to HSBC’s stock, which Citi analysts found surprising given the bank’s potential for earnings growth. The market’s reaction appears particularly noteworthy considering HSBC’s impressive performance, with the stock delivering a 55.43% return over the past year and currently trading near its 52-week high of $57.08. According to InvestingPro data, HSBC commands a substantial market capitalization of $197.49 billion and trades at a P/E ratio of 9.31.
Coombs addressed several concerns that may have contributed to the stock’s lackluster performance, including higher-than-anticipated restructuring charges that might restrict future share buybacks, the absence of explicit cost guidance for 2026/27, potential disappointments in impairments, and the possibility that consensus estimates might lean towards the lower end of HSBC’s 14-16% return on tangible equity (RoTE) target. Additionally, there is a risk of statutory earnings per share (EPS) downgrades due to restructuring charges, despite the likelihood of underlying EPS upgrades. It’s worth noting that HSBC has maintained a strong dividend profile, with a current yield of 3.48% and a track record of raising dividends for four consecutive years.
Despite these concerns, Coombs believes many are unwarranted and continues to position HSBC as a top pick. He suggests that if HSBC can meet its updated outlook, it could lead to double-digit consensus upgrades to the bank’s outer-year EPS. This outlook is based on the assumption that the bank will successfully navigate the challenges outlined and deliver on its financial targets. InvestingPro analysis supports this optimistic view, assigning HSBC a "GREAT" overall Financial Health Score of 3.11, with particularly strong momentum metrics. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 12 additional valuable insights about HSBC’s financial position and market performance.
Citi’s analysis indicates a confidence in HSBC’s ability to overcome the potential bear points, which include both operational and financial hurdles. Coombs’ comments highlight the firm’s belief in the bank’s strategy and its capacity to generate shareholder value in the coming years.
The reaffirmed Buy rating and price target signal Citi’s ongoing optimism about HSBC’s prospects, suggesting that the bank’s current share price may not fully reflect its future earnings potential. This perspective offers a counterpoint to the market’s immediate reaction and underscores Citi’s conviction in the bank’s long-term performance.
In other recent news, HSBC Holdings has been the subject of several adjustments by major financial institutions. Barclays (LON:BARC) has raised its price target for HSBC to GBP9.40, maintaining an Equalweight rating. This adjustment comes as Barclays analysts anticipate potential upside risks to HSBC’s earnings and room for self-improvement within the company. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), on the other hand, has downgraded HSBC from Buy to Hold, while simultaneously raising the price target to GBP9.10. The bank’s ability to maintain its return on tangible equity (ROTE) has been highlighted as a primary draw for investors.
In contrast, Citi maintains a Buy rating on HSBC with a price target of GBP8.90. This decision comes amidst reports of HSBC planning to withdraw from European and US equity capital markets (ECM) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities. These changes are expected to have minimal impact on HSBC’s overall revenue.
Lastly, HSBC is reportedly scaling down its investment banking operations in Europe, UK, and the Americas, focusing on its core operations in Asia and the Middle East. This move is part of an ongoing restructuring process led by CEO Georges Elhedery. These recent developments reflect the dynamic and evolving nature of HSBC’s strategic positioning in the global banking sector.
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