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On Thursday, Citizens JMP analyst Jonathan Wolleben reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating and a $25.00 price target for Astria Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ATXS), maintaining a positive outlook on the company’s prospects. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for ATXS range from $16 to $47, with the stock currently trading at $4.37. The company appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis. Wolleben’s assessment is based on the anticipated performance of Astria’s lead candidate, navenibart, in comparison to the market leader Takhzyro.
Wolleben believes that if the ongoing ALPHA-SOLAR trial demonstrates a reduction in monthly attacks of more than 80% and an attack-free rate of over 70% at one year, ATXS shares are likely to respond favorably. The ALPHA-SOLAR trial is utilizing baseline attack rates from the Phase 1b/2 ALPHASTAR trial, and the results from ALPHA-STAR will not be included in the ALPHA-SOLAR analysis. With a market capitalization of $247 million and a relatively low beta of 0.45, the stock could offer an interesting risk-reward profile. InvestingPro subscribers can access 8 additional key insights about ATXS’s financial health and growth prospects.
The analyst points out that during the HELP OLE trial, about 45% of patients reported injection site pain with Takhzyro. In contrast, navenibart is expected to offer a more tolerable injection experience, potentially setting it apart from its competitor.
Despite a year-to-date decrease of 51% in ATXS shares, a decline that Wolleben notes cannot be attributed to any fundamental updates, he anticipates that positive long-term efficacy and safety data from the ALPHA-SOLAR trial could potentially increase the company’s stock value by at least 50%. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 17.39 and holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, providing financial flexibility for its clinical development programs. He also mentions that there is a potential downside of around 10% on the update, barring any significant safety concerns that could halt the drug’s development. However, such concerns are considered unlikely at this stage, given the current understanding of the plasma kallikrein inhibition mechanism utilized by navenibart.
Wolleben’s comments reflect his confidence in Astria Therapeutics’ potential and the future performance of its shares, as the company continues to progress through its clinical trials.
In other recent news, Astria Therapeutics has been making significant strides in its clinical trials for navenibart, a promising treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE). The company reported approximately $295 million in capital as of the first quarter of 2025, which is expected to fund operations through mid-2027. Cantor Fitzgerald has maintained an Overweight rating with a $47 price target, highlighting the drug’s potential to outperform existing HAE treatments. Meanwhile, JMP Securities adjusted its price target for Astria to $25, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, and emphasized the importance of upcoming data releases for navenibart and another candidate, STAR-0310.
The ongoing Phase 3 ALPHA-ORBIT trial for navenibart is a focal point, with results anticipated in early 2027. The trial’s progress and the drug’s long dosing intervals are seen as competitive advantages. Astria also announced Phase 1a trial results showing that navenibart is well-tolerated, with a mean half-life of 82 to 105 days, supporting dosing every three to six months. The company is also developing STAR-0310, an OX40 antagonist, with initial clinical data expected in the third quarter of 2025.
These developments underscore Astria’s commitment to advancing HAE therapies, with analysts closely watching for further progress. The successful execution of these trials could enhance Astria’s position in the HAE treatment market, offering potentially improved options for patients.
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