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On Thursday, Needham analysts adjusted their outlook for CompoSecure Inc. (NASDAQ:CMPO), reducing the price target to $15.00 from the previous $16.00 while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s shares. According to InvestingPro data, the analyst consensus remains strongly bullish with targets ranging from $14.50 to $18.00, suggesting significant upside potential. The company maintains a GREAT financial health score of 3.05 out of 4. The adjustment came after CompoSecure reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2024, which revealed a modest beat on adjusted EBITDA figures. This was attributed to lower than anticipated cash SG&A expenses, excluding approximately $10 million in one-time earnout and spin-off costs. The gross profit for the quarter was reported to be consistent with expectations, balancing a softer top line with higher margins.
The analysts expressed increased confidence in CompoSecure’s strategic direction following the Resolute spin-off, noting that management’s focus on the core business of CompoSecure remains strong. However, they indicated that any mergers and acquisitions would likely be a gradual process. The company’s strong financial position is evidenced by its healthy current ratio of 2.28, with liquid assets well exceeding short-term obligations. Get deeper insights into CompoSecure’s financial health with a comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro. The report highlighted the performance of Arculus, CompoSecure’s digital security platform, which turned profitable in the fourth quarter of 2024, contributing $3.5 million to adjusted EBITDA.
Due to these factors, Needham has revised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecast for CompoSecure to $145 million, down from the prior estimate of $157 million. While the company reported a strong free cash flow yield of 11% in the last twelve months, InvestingPro analysis indicates that three analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period. The platform offers 8 additional exclusive ProTips and detailed financial metrics to help investors make informed decisions. This new projection aligns with the company’s guidance, which anticipates mid-single-digit percentage growth in both top-line revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The revised forecast also accounts for an anticipated $12 million headwind related to management fees paid to Resolute Holdings. These fees are calculated as 2.5% of the company’s adjusted EBITDA over the last 12 months, excluding share-based compensation (SBC), and are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025.
In other recent news, CompoSecure Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, which did not meet analysts’ expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $0.20, missing the $0.22 forecast, and reported revenue of $100.9 million, below the anticipated $102.58 million. Despite these shortfalls, CompoSecure achieved an 8% increase in full-year net sales, driven by strong domestic and international growth. The company also highlighted the positive net contribution of Arculus in the fourth quarter, emphasizing its role in future growth. In terms of financial health, CompoSecure reduced its net debt by 60% and reported cash and cash equivalents of $77.5 million. Looking forward, the company expects mid-single-digit growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA for 2025. Additionally, Arculus is projected to reach a net positive status in 2025, contributing to CompoSecure’s long-term strategy. Analyst firms such as TD Cowen and B. Riley Securities have shown interest in the company’s strategic direction, including its focus on mergers and acquisitions.
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