Constellation Brands stock holds as BofA reaffirms $205 target

Published 07/04/2025, 11:02
Constellation Brands stock holds as BofA reaffirms $205 target

On Monday, BofA Securities maintained a Neutral stance on Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) with a consistent price target of $205.00, as the stock continues to face pressure having declined nearly 28% over the past six months. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $165 to $300, with the current consensus maintaining a moderate buy recommendation. The decision follows an analysis of recent Beer Institute import data, which indicated that Constellation Brands may have increased its inventory prior to tariff announcements made last week. BofA Securities’ analyst noted an adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025, raising it to $2.36 from the previous $2.23. This comes as InvestingPro reports that nine analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, despite the company maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of 51.5%.

The revision in the EPS forecast is based on the expectation that shipments will outpace depletions by 1.0 million cases, with a slight year-over-year decrease in shipments by 0.1% (previously anticipated to drop by 4.9%) and depletions falling by 2.2% year-over-year, a figure that remains unchanged. The updated shipment forecast assumes that Constellation Brands holds an 80.5% share of Mexican beer imports for the period between December 2024 and February 2025.

According to the Beer Institute, beer imports during these months amounted to 107.9 million cases, marking a 1.1% year-over-year increase. BofA Securities’ analysis includes a sensitivity analysis that supports their shipment forecast for Constellation Brands.

Constellation Brands is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 after the market closes on Wednesday. This report is highly anticipated as it will provide further insight into the company’s performance and the impact of the recent tariff changes on its operations. Despite current market challenges, the company has maintained its streak of raising dividends for 10 consecutive years, with a current yield of 2.3%. For deeper insights into Constellation Brands’ financial health and detailed analysis, investors can access comprehensive research reports and additional ProTips through InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH) has seen Jefferies maintain its Buy rating on the company’s stock while raising the price target from $40 to $44. The adjustment comes amid expectations of a challenging first quarter due to factors like subdued demand and retail destocking. Jefferies’ analyst Kaumil Gajrawala also cited new tariffs as potential hurdles for Celsius Holdings in the upcoming year. Despite these challenges, the revised price target suggests a positive long-term outlook for the company. Meanwhile, Constellation Brands has experienced several adjustments in stock price targets from different analyst firms. Needham reduced its price target from $240 to $215, while maintaining a Buy rating, ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report. Evercore ISI also lowered its target from $250 to $225, citing a decline in tracked channel volumes and potential tariff uncertainties. Additionally, TD Cowen cut its price target to $200, reflecting concerns over expected tariffs and a forecasted slowdown in beer consumption. RBC Capital Markets slightly adjusted its target to $289, maintaining an Outperform rating while noting the company’s challenges and stagnant stock performance over the past five years.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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