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Investing.com - CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW), a leading private prison operator, received a Buy rating initiation from Texas Capital Securities on Monday, with a price target of $28.00. The company, which InvestingPro analysis shows is currently undervalued, boasts a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong financial health. Analyst targets range from $28 to $38, suggesting significant upside potential.
Texas Capital Securities highlighted CoreCivic’s position as the largest private owner of correctional real estate in the U.S., controlling approximately 55% of correctional real estate and managing 39% of all beds in the private prison sector, which houses less than 8% of the country’s prison population.
The firm’s investment thesis centers on CoreCivic’s potential to deploy currently idle prison facilities and win additional monitoring and supervision contracts over the next 12-24 months, noting that the company’s core state and local prison business, representing 48% of revenue, provides stable, recurring revenue with high renewal rates.
Texas Capital Securities pointed to increasing incarceration rates across the country following years of decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with aging prison infrastructure—with an estimated 500 prisons needing major upgrades or repurposing—as factors supporting CoreCivic’s growth potential.
The firm projects CoreCivic could grow annual revenues and adjusted EBITDA from $1.96 billion/$331 million in FY24 to $2.76 billion/$500 million in FY27, suggesting the current 7x FY26E EV/EBITDA valuation could re-rate to 9x or higher.
In other recent news, CoreCivic has reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, significantly above the projected $0.12, and recorded revenue of $488.6 million, exceeding the anticipated $477.89 million. CoreCivic’s performance reflects improved operational efficiency and increased facility utilization, which rose to 77%. Additionally, CoreCivic announced plans to acquire the Farmville Detention Center in Virginia for $67 million, a move expected to generate approximately $40 million in annual incremental revenue. This acquisition will be funded through cash on hand and the company’s revolving credit facility, with the transaction anticipated to close by July 2025. In terms of future guidance, CoreCivic has revised its full-year 2025 earnings outlook upwards, projecting diluted EPS to range between $0.83 and $0.92. Furthermore, the company is actively engaging with ICE on potential new contracts, including letter agreements for facilities in Kansas and California, which may lead to longer-term contracts. These developments highlight CoreCivic’s strategic focus on expanding its operations and enhancing financial performance.
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