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On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analyst George Brown revised the price target for Ubisoft Entertainment SA (LON:0NVL) (UBI:FP) (OTC:UBSFY) to €12.00, down from the previous €13.00. Despite the reduction, the analyst maintained a Hold rating on the stock. Brown’s commentary highlighted the strong performance of Ubisoft (EPA:UBIP)’s latest release, "Assassin’s Creed Shadows," which has excelled in both critical reception, with a critic score of 81/100, and commercial sales, selling 3 million units in its first week. The game was the best-selling title in the U.S. on March 25 and the second-best-selling year-to-date.
The success of "Assassin’s Creed Shadows" led Deutsche Bank to increase its Q4 unit sales forecast to 4.5 million units, up from 4 million, translating to expected sales of €230 million, an increase from the previously estimated €205 million. This adjustment comes despite the game’s initial delay and surrounding controversy. The bank also anticipates robust back catalog and player recurring investment revenues, which are in-game spending, to reach €250 million, along with €150 million in Q4.
Deutsche Bank estimates a €325 million shortfall to meet Ubisoft’s implied sales guidance of €955 million for the quarter. However, the firm forecasts that this gap will be completely bridged by licensing and partnership revenues, which are projected to be around €330 million, involving partnerships with major companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL).
As a result of these factors, Deutsche Bank expects Ubisoft to achieve net bookings of €960 million for Q4-25 and €1.9 billion for the full fiscal year 2025, with adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of €40 million. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, the bank projects an 8% growth in net bookings, which is slightly below the consensus estimate of 11%, and adjusted EBIT of €227 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of €210 million.
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