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On Thursday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analyst Jaime Rowbotham upgraded Air France-KLM shares from Sell to Hold, setting a new price target at €8.50. The adjustment comes after the airline’s stock value experienced a significant decline from its year-to-date peak in early March. Air France-KLM’s shares have dropped approximately 38% from the €12.1 peak observed on March 6th and have seen a 21% fall since Deutsche Bank’s recommendation was lowered to Sell on March 27th. According to InvestingPro data, the stock now trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 4.14, significantly below industry averages, with the current price of $0.85 sitting 32% below its 52-week high of $1.25.
The downgrade in late March was influenced by concerns over weakening U.S. domestic demand and the potential negative impact on U.S. and global GDP from proposed reciprocal tariffs. Despite these challenges, Air France-KLM reported a stronger-than-anticipated first quarter. The group’s operating loss decreased by one-third year-over-year, despite the later occurrence of Easter. Notably, revenue from North America showed a robust increase of around 10%. InvestingPro data reveals the company’s overall revenue growth of 5.36% in the last twelve months, with total revenue reaching $34.6 billion and a gross profit margin of 19.41%.
Although Deutsche Bank does not anticipate the North American revenue growth to sustain, Air France-KLM provided insights into the second-quarter trends. Booked load factors for May and June are down by around 3% year-over-year, but yields are compensating for this decline. Deutsche Bank’s forecasts include a 3% growth in North American revenue for the second quarter, followed by an estimated 8% year-over-year decrease in revenues for the subsequent four quarters.
The report also highlights that while the revenue downgrades could have a substantial negative impact on the group’s profitability, market adjustments in fuel and foreign exchange rates have provided a considerable counterbalance. These factors imply a less severe earnings downgrade of 9% for 2025 and 1% for 2026, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis. InvestingPro analysis shows the company operates with moderate debt levels, though short-term obligations exceed liquid assets with a current ratio of 0.61. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 5 additional key tips about Air France-KLM and detailed financial metrics to make more informed investment decisions.
In other recent news, Air France-KLM reported its first-quarter earnings, which exceeded analyst expectations. The company achieved revenues of €7,165 million, surpassing both UBS’s forecast of €7,121 million and the consensus estimate of €6,983 million. Despite a net loss of €292 million, this was better than anticipated by analysts, showing a marked improvement from the previous year’s figures. In a strategic move, Air France-KLM has proposed a €300 million acquisition for a 51% stake in Spanish airline Air Europa, which includes assuming the airline’s significant debt to the Spanish government. This comes amid reports of Lufthansa’s interest in a minority stake in Air Europa. Additionally, Air France-KLM’s stock received mixed reviews from analysts, with Redburn-Atlantic upgrading the stock from Neutral to Buy, citing improved financial performance prospects. Conversely, UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral due to recent challenges, including costs related to the Paris Olympics and operational issues. These developments highlight Air France-KLM’s ongoing transformation and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing its market position.
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