Deutsche Bank sees sharper EBITDA inflection for CommScope shares with demand recovery

Published 21/01/2025, 11:50
Deutsche Bank sees sharper EBITDA inflection for CommScope shares with demand recovery

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analysts have maintained a Buy rating on CommScope Holding (NASDAQ:COMM) with a steady price target of $6.00, which represents potential upside from the current price of $5.36.

According to InvestingPro data, the stock has shown remarkable momentum with a 219% surge over the past six months, though price movements remain quite volatile. The firm anticipates that the company's fourth-quarter results for 2024, which are scheduled for February 20th, will serve as a significant positive catalyst for the stock. While not currently profitable, InvestingPro analysis indicates analysts expect the company to return to profitability this year.

The Cable/Connectivity Solutions (CCS) segment, which accounts for two-thirds of CommScope's pro forma sales of $5.18 billion, has already seen an uptick in demand that is likely to sustain double-digit growth. This optimism is driven by stronger orders from carriers, as well as increasing contributions from AI data centers and Broadband Equipment and Distribution (BEAD).

The analysts also foresee an increase in contributions from CommScope's Access Network Solutions (ANS) and RUCKUS segments starting in 2025. The expected upswing is based on projected higher spending from cable providers for ANS and from enterprise customers for RUCKUS, following a period of lower expenditure in 2024.

Observations from industry peers such as Corning (NYSE:GLW), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), and HPE have been cited to validate the expectation of enhanced customer spending patterns among CommScope's key customer groups, which include telecom/cable and enterprise wireless sectors.

This anticipated growth in customer spending is expected to underpin a more pronounced rise in CommScope's Core Adjusted EBITDA in the forthcoming quarters. Deutsche Bank's outlook reflects a broader industry trend of increasing investment in network infrastructure and connectivity solutions, as evidenced by the positive developments among CommScope's competitors and peers.

The analysts' commentary underscores the potential for CommScope's stock to benefit from the company's strategic positioning and the expected increase in demand across its business segments. With a market capitalization of $1.16 billion and an EBITDA of $924.9 million in the last twelve months, the company shows promising fundamentals despite current challenges.

As the market awaits the fourth-quarter results, CommScope's stock movement will likely be closely watched by investors keen on gauging the company's performance and its alignment with Deutsche Bank's projections. For deeper insights into CommScope's financial health and growth potential, investors can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro's detailed research reports.

In other recent news, CommScope Holding has been the subject of significant attention from analysts.

JPMorgan recently upgraded the company's stock rating to Neutral, citing the company's strategic debt refinancing efforts and anticipated revenue growth. This follows the announcement of a comprehensive debt refinancing plan, which includes issuing notes due in 2029 and 2031 to repay existing debts. The plan also involves leveraging the expected proceeds from the sale of its Home Networks and Distributed Antenna Systems businesses to Amphenol (NYSE:APH), projected to bring in $2.1 billion.

However, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James downgraded CommScope's stock rating due to concerns about the company's high leverage affecting its valuation. This comes after reassessing the company's financial outlook following the recent refinancing efforts. Similarly, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded the company's stock from Equalweight to Underweight following a reassessment of the company's position post-Q3, leading to a more conservative outlook for the company.

In addition to these developments, CommScope reported a 3% year-over-year increase in net sales in its third-quarter 2024 earnings call, reaching $1.082 billion. The company's adjusted EBITDA also saw a 25% rise, amounting to $220 million. The company also announced a dividend for its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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