Evercore ISI cuts Lennar stock rating, lowers price target to $131

Published 24/03/2025, 06:34

On Monday, Evercore ISI adjusted its stance on Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), downgrading the homebuilder’s stock rating from Outperform to In Line. Accompanying this change was a reduction in the price target from $159.00 to $131.00. According to InvestingPro analysis, Lennar maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.04 out of 4, and the stock appears undervalued at current levels.Want deeper insights? InvestingPro offers 14 additional investment tips for Lennar, along with comprehensive financial analysis in their Pro Research Report. The revision followed Lennar’s first-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2025, which was released in February. The company’s adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.16, surpassing both Evercore ISI’s projection of $1.74 and the Street consensus of $1.70. Trading at a P/E ratio of 7.64x and maintaining a 48-year streak of dividend payments, Lennar demonstrates strong fundamental value.

The reported figures did not include a $62.5 million mark-to-market loss tied to Lennar’s investments in various companies, nor did they account for purchase accounting impacts amounting to $7.8 million. While Lennar’s gross margins and closing average selling price (ASP) fell short of estimates, standing at 18.8% versus the anticipated 19.2% and $408,000 versus the estimated $413,000, respectively, other financial metrics exceeded expectations. Financial services income reached $143 million, outperforming the estimate of $115 million, and the number of closings was 17.8 thousand, slightly above the forecasted 17.4 thousand.

The company also saw a year-over-year increase in orders, defying expectations of a decline. The selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses plus corporate costs were reported at 10.8%, better than the estimated 11.6%. In a notable move, Lennar repurchased approximately $703 million of its stock during the quarter, which was significantly higher than the anticipated $200 million.

Additionally, Lennar successfully completed the spin-off of Millrose within the quarter. It retains around 20% of the total outstanding shares of the newly formed company, Millrose Residential Properties (MRP). Evercore ISI anticipates that these shares will be exchanged for Lennar shares in a cashless share repurchase expected to occur in late second quarter of 2025.

In other recent news, Lennar Corporation reported a robust financial performance for Q1 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14, significantly exceeding the forecast of $1.75. The company also surpassed revenue expectations, recording $7.6 billion against the projected $7.42 billion. Despite these positive results, investor concerns about broader market conditions, such as higher mortgage rates and affordability issues, may have contributed to a decline in Lennar’s stock in after-hours trading. Additionally, Lennar completed its acquisition of Rausch Coleman, expanding into new markets while maintaining an asset-light model. The company also finalized the spin-off of Millrose, supporting its transition to a more efficient operational model. Looking ahead, Lennar anticipates delivering between 19,500 and 20,500 homes in Q2 2025, with an average sales price ranging from $390,000 to $400,000. Analysts from Evercore ISI and other firms have noted the company’s strategic focus on volume and efficiency, which could bolster its market position. Lennar remains committed to adjusting its production levels to align with market conditions, aiming for resilience and growth.

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