ExxonMobil stock outlook remains positive despite Q2 earnings headwinds

Published 08/07/2025, 15:58
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Investing.com - ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), with a market capitalization of $488 billion, is expected to report second-quarter earnings of approximately $1.55 per share, according to an 8-K filing analyzed by UBS. According to InvestingPro, the company will report earnings on July 25, with 5 analysts recently revising their estimates upward.

The projected earnings would miss UBS’s estimate of $1.66 but slightly exceed the Street consensus of $1.53, according to UBS analyst Josh Silverstein, who maintained a Buy rating and $130.00 price target on the stock. Trading at a P/E ratio of 15x and offering a 3.56% dividend yield, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued.

The implied second-quarter earnings represent a 12% decrease compared to the first quarter, with net income projected at approximately $6.7 billion, assuming the midpoint of previous corporate expense guidance.

Lower commodity prices were identified as the primary factor behind the earnings decline, with oil prices creating a roughly $1 billion quarter-over-quarter headwind and gas prices adding approximately $500 million in additional pressure.

UBS noted that the 8-K filing does not account for potential positive factors including growing upstream volumes, ongoing cost reduction efforts, and ExxonMobil’s shift toward higher-value downstream products, which could provide upside to the implied earnings projection.

In other recent news, ExxonMobil’s financial outlook has seen varied projections from several analysts ahead of its second-quarter 2025 earnings report. Piper Sandler has adjusted its price target for ExxonMobil to $134 while maintaining an Overweight rating, despite lowering its earnings estimate to $1.52 per share due to reduced Energy Products contributions. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) maintains a Neutral rating with a $124 price target, expecting earnings of $1.72 per share, which is above current consensus estimates. UBS, on the other hand, holds a Buy rating with a $130 price target, forecasting earnings per share of $1.66, citing lower oil prices as a factor for the projected decrease from the previous quarter. In other developments, a consortium led by ExxonMobil discovered a natural gas reservoir off the coast of Cyprus, marking the second discovery in Block 10. This discovery follows a previous find at the Glaucus-1 well in 2019. Additionally, ExxonMobil owns a 25% stake in Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil, which recently shipped its first oil to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline. This shipment represents a new export route for Kazakh oil to European markets.

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