Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Rahul Jain adjusted the outlook on State Bank of India (NSE:SBI) (SBIN:IN), upgrading the stock's rating from Sell to Neutral and increasing the price target to INR823.00, up from INR806.00. Jain attributed the upgrade to the bank's devaluation over the past six months and potential easing of pressures on its net interest margins (NIMs).
The State Bank of India experienced a significant de-rating, dropping from 1.2X 12-month forward Price-to-Book (PB) to below 1X. The bank's performance lagged behind large private sector counterparts such as ICICI Bank (ICBK:IN) and Axis Bank (NSE:AXBK:IN). Jain noted that since being added to the Sell list on September 5, 2024, SBI's stock has declined by 6%, while the Bank Nifty index saw a marginal increase of 0.1%.
The Goldman Sachs analyst pointed out that the moderation in NIMs, which aligned with their previous downgrade thesis, was a key factor in the underperformance. However, Jain now believes that the pressure on NIMs could ease marginally due to the bank's relatively lower proportion of repo-linked loans, which allows more time for re-adjustment, coupled with favorable liquidity dynamics.
Furthermore, the analyst anticipates a steady core Pre-Provision Operating Profit Return on Assets (PPOP-ROA), supported by a benign cost-to-assets ratio. Despite these positive signs, Jain expects that the Return on Assets (ROAs) will settle below 1% over the next two years, as a result of the normalization of credit costs. This forecast takes into account the current financial data and trends observed in the incremental lending spreads for state-owned banks.
In other recent news, State Bank of India reported a third-quarter profit after tax of Rs 168.9 billion, exceeding UBS's estimates. This result was driven by reduced credit costs, which were recorded at 23 basis points on an annualized basis, down from 40 basis points in the second quarter. However, the bank faced challenges with net interest income, which grew by only 4.1% year-over-year, alongside a decline in treasury income. Citi analyst Kunal Shah upgraded the bank's stock rating from 'Sell' to 'Buy', raising the price target to INR830.00, citing management's focus on net interest margin and credit growth.
Meanwhile, UBS analyst Vishal Goyal maintained a 'Sell' rating with a price target of INR760.00, pointing out concerns about the bank's net interest margin decline and lower core pre-provision operating profit compared to large private banks. Despite the earnings beat, UBS highlighted potential pressure on net interest margins and credit costs, which could impact the bank's return on assets and equity. Citi, however, revised its earnings estimates for the bank by 1-2% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, expecting improved growth visibility due to initiatives in housing loans and corporate pipelines. The bank's gross non-performing asset formation showed improvement, arriving at approximately 43 basis points, down from previous quarters. Both analysts noted the bank's current valuation, with Citi seeing attractive potential and UBS expressing concerns about the risk-reward profile.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.