Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating on Venture Global stock despite arbitration outcome

Published 16/10/2025, 10:24
Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating on Venture Global stock despite arbitration outcome

Investing.com - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Buy rating on Venture Global (NYSE:VG) while slightly lowering its price target to $17.50 from $18 following recent arbitration developments. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading at $9.14, with analysts’ targets ranging from $11 to $21, suggesting significant potential upside despite recent challenges.

The firm’s decision comes after Venture Global’s stock dropped approximately 30% since October 8, compared to the Alerian Midstream Energy Index’s 3% decline during the same period, following an arbitration outcome regarding BP’s CP1 project. InvestingPro data shows the stock has fallen 27.34% in just the past week, with a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87x.

Goldman Sachs has updated its model to reflect a base case of a $1 billion outflow in the fourth quarter of 2026, though it notes that damages and timing will be decided late next year and can effectively be appealed.

The firm’s analysis includes a downside scenario where all outstanding cases go against Venture Global, with damages aligned with offtaker requests and liability caps deemed inapplicable, resulting in a total outflow of approximately $5.3 billion funded via common equity - a scenario that would still value shares at $13, above the current trading price of approximately $9.

Goldman Sachs expects positive contract announcements at Venture Global’s third quarter 2025 earnings report, maintaining that while the arbitration news introduces an overhang, the recent sell-off appears excessive. InvestingPro analysis indicates the company maintains a FAIR financial health score, with 13 additional real-time insights available to subscribers, including detailed analysis of the company’s valuation metrics and growth prospects.

In other recent news, Venture Global reported its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes for the third quarter, exporting 100 LNG cargos totaling 371.8 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) with a weighted average liquefaction fee of $5.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Additionally, Venture Global faced a significant arbitration ruling against it, as a tribunal found the company breached its obligations to declare the commercial operations date for the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in a timely manner. This decision, related to a dispute with BP , could result in BP seeking damages exceeding $1 billion, with further hearings expected in 2026.

In terms of analyst ratings, Mizuho downgraded Venture Global from Outperform to Neutral, lowering the price target to $12.00, following the unfavorable arbitration decision. Conversely, Deutsche Bank upgraded the company’s stock from Hold to Buy, setting a price target of $17.00 after a site visit to the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana. These developments highlight the mixed perspectives from analysts on Venture Global’s future prospects. The company also recently resolved a separate arbitration case, which had previously been in its favor against Shell.

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