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On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its Sell rating on Hertz Global (NASDAQ:HTZ) with a set price target of $3.00. According to InvestingPro data, the company currently trades at $5.77, with concerning fundamentals including negative EBITDA of -$810 million in the last twelve months and significant debt burden. InvestingPro analysis reveals several red flags, with 12 key insights available to subscribers. The firm’s stance comes after Hertz reported a significant revenue shortfall, which was primarily attributed to the company’s decision to reduce its fleet size by 8%. This reduction in fleet size has led to a substantial decrease in vehicle volumes, which in turn, was not sufficiently counterbalanced by maintaining rental prices. The company’s financial health score on InvestingPro reflects these challenges, with revenue declining 6.61% and a concerning current ratio of 0.94.
Hertz’s ongoing strategy to decrease its fleet throughout the year is expected to continue exerting pressure on both volume and rental price per day (RPD), though to a slightly lesser degree. Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests that Hertz may not regain the market share it has lost. Despite the Department of Energy (DOE) being a positive aspect, there remain unanswered questions regarding the assumptions for residual values and holding periods for the daily profit per unit (DPU). Notably, Hertz’s gross DPU is significantly lower than that of its competitor, CAR, and the company’s forecast for the second quarter is less than $25 lower.
While Hertz expresses confidence in achieving its 2025 and long-term guidance, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its estimates downward. The pivotal factor in the firm’s model is the RPD, and despite Hertz’s forecasts of considerable improvements in revenue per unit (RPU) over the long term, Goldman Sachs remains cautious. This caution stems from the need for additional evidence of industry rationality, particularly from competitors like Sixt, and the general demand outlook. Consequently, Goldman Sachs now projects a 2025 adjusted EBITDA of -$138 million for Hertz, while maintaining the price target of $3.00. For deeper insights into Hertz’s financial health and detailed analysis, including comprehensive valuation metrics and peer comparisons, investors can access the full Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, part of the platform’s coverage of over 1,400 US stocks.
In other recent news, Hertz Global Holdings (OTC:HTZGQ) Inc. reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revealing a challenging start to the year. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$1.12, which was below the expected -$0.94, while revenue reached $1.81 billion, falling short of the anticipated $2.01 billion. Despite efforts to improve operational efficiency, these results reflect ongoing difficulties in meeting financial targets, compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties and a reduced fleet size. The company aims to achieve breakeven EBITDA in Q2 2025 and projects a sizable profit in Q3, with the goal of reaching $1 billion in EBITDA by 2027. In response to the earnings miss, Hertz’s stock experienced a significant decline, highlighting investor concerns. The company also announced strategic partnerships with technology firms to enhance fleet management and revenue systems, which are expected to aid in achieving these financial goals. Additionally, Hertz has been working on a disciplined fleet management strategy, which includes early vehicle deliveries to avoid tariff exposure and improve fleet utilization. Analyst firms such as Oppenheimer and Bank of America have been actively engaging with the company, discussing fleet strategy and market conditions.
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