Goldman Sachs lowers Boston Beer stock price target on deteriorating volume trends

Published 23/06/2025, 10:51
Updated 23/06/2025, 21:56
Goldman Sachs lowers Boston Beer stock price target on deteriorating volume trends

Investing.com - Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM) to $187.00 from $219.00 on Monday while maintaining a Sell rating on the alcoholic beverage maker. The stock, currently trading at $198.17 with a market capitalization of $2.16 billion, has seen its shares decline over 33% year-to-date. According to InvestingPro data, the company trades at a P/E ratio of 40.21.

The firm cited deteriorating volume trends that will likely weigh on quarterly results and lead to a fiscal year 2025 guidance cut. Recent Nielsen tracked channel data shows Boston Beer’s total volume down approximately 8% year-over-year in April and May, with Twisted Tea volume declining about 6% and Truly volume falling around 20%. This weakness comes as the company’s revenue growth has slowed to just 0.79% over the last twelve months. InvestingPro analysis reveals 11 additional key insights about Boston Beer’s performance and outlook.

Goldman Sachs noted that while Sun Cruiser has been a bright spot and gained meaningful market share in 2025, the brand remains relatively small and its strength likely won’t offset sharp declines in the company’s core brands. The firm’s recent "Beverage Bytes" survey of beer distributors confirmed continued pressures for Truly and moderating Twisted Tea sales.

Based on these trends, Goldman Sachs lowered its shipment, depletion, and earnings per share estimates for the second quarter and fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The firm cited limited visibility on Truly’s path to stabilization and expectations for slower growth from Twisted Tea as key factors in its analysis.

Despite the significant price target increase, Goldman Sachs maintained its Sell rating on Boston Beer, citing a negative risk-reward profile ahead of the company’s second-quarter results due to few near-term growth catalysts beyond Sun Cruiser. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $196.60, and InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued, offering potential upside for long-term investors despite near-term challenges.

In other recent news, Boston Beer Company reported impressive Q1 2025 earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $2.16, significantly surpassing the forecasted $0.6342. The company’s revenue also saw a 6.5% increase, driven by product innovations and increased shipments. Additionally, Boston Beer has expanded its cannabis beverage lines, TeaPot and Emerald Hour, in Canada, introducing new high-potency offerings. Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts revised their price target for Boston Beer Company shares, lowering it to $270 but maintaining a Market Perform rating. This adjustment follows an analysis of the company’s recent sales performance. The company has been actively expanding its product distribution, particularly with its Sun Cruiser brand, which is anticipated to increase its distribution points. However, Twisted Tea’s growth has been slower, with expectations for low single-digit growth in fiscal year 2025. These developments highlight Boston Beer’s strategic focus on innovation and market expansion amid a complex market environment.

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