H.C. Wainwright maintains Akebia stock Buy rating, $7.50 target

On Monday, H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating and a price target of $7.50 on Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKBA) shares. According to InvestingPro data, this target represents significant upside potential, with analyst consensus targets ranging from $6 to $10. The stock has already shown strong momentum, gaining over 21% in the past week and nearly 65% over the last six months. The firm’s analyst highlighted the strong early commercial performance of Akebia’s product Vafseo (vadadustat), which began shipping on January 9, 2025. Vafseo has shown accelerating prescription rates in the first quarter of 2025, with net sales guidance for the quarter between $10 million and $11 million. This figure surpasses the previous consensus estimate of $3.5 million for the first quarter and $7.5 million for the second quarter of 2025.

The company’s strategy, termed the "coiled spring" strategy, was designed to secure contracts with dialysis organizations (DOs) and build prescriber demand to facilitate rapid patient transition to Vafseo upon its market availability. Akebia’s management has attributed the success of Vafseo to this approach, which has yet to include sales to large dialysis organizations like DaVita (NYSE:DVA) and Fresenius in the U.S.

Several key metrics were provided to gauge the commercial progress of Vafseo: more than 500 prescribing physicians, an average of 8 scripts written per physician, and over 15% of scripts for Medicare Advantage patients. Notably, a single physician has written as many as 64 scripts. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of nearly 84%, though it’s currently not profitable. For investors seeking deeper insights, InvestingPro offers additional metrics and a comprehensive Pro Research Report, available among its coverage of 1,400+ US stocks. Management pointed out that over 50% of the prescribing physicians who see patients at U.S. Renal Care (USRC), Vafseo’s largest customer to date, also treat patients at other dialysis organizations, which could further broaden Vafseo’s market penetration.

The analyst also emphasized the importance of Vafseo’s uptake among patients covered by Medicare Advantage, which requires separate contracts for reimbursement with DOs. This uptake is seen as a positive indicator of Vafseo’s market acceptance and potential for growth. The reaffirmed Buy rating and price target of $7.50 reflect the analyst’s positive outlook on Akebia’s commercial strategy and the early success of Vafseo in the market. With a market capitalization of approximately $534 million and an overall Financial Health score rated as "GOOD" by InvestingPro, the company appears well-positioned to execute its growth strategy.

In other recent news, Akebia Therapeutics has reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a net loss of $22.8 million and a revenue decline to $46.49 million, falling short of the anticipated $49.57 million. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) also missed forecasts, coming in at -$0.10 compared to the expected -$0.07. Despite these setbacks, Akebia has launched its new product, Vafseo, targeting anemia in dialysis patients, with projected first-quarter 2025 revenues of $10 million to $11 million. This figure nearly doubles the consensus and Piper Sandler Companies’ estimates, indicating strong market acceptance. Piper Sandler analyst Allison M. Bratzel raised the price target for Akebia’s stock to $6.00 from $4.00, maintaining an Overweight rating due to the promising launch of Vafseo. The analyst noted that Vafseo’s prescription volume is about four times higher than a competing drug, Xphozah, at a similar stage post-launch. Additionally, Akebia’s cash reserves stand at $51.9 million, with further funds raised post-year-end, supporting the company’s operations for at least two years.

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