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Investing.com - Humana (NYSE:HUM) stock recovered from an initial 8% drop on Monday after a Texas federal court dismissed the company’s lawsuit seeking to reverse its 2025 Medicare Advantage star rating downgrade. The stock, currently trading at $220.41, sits near its 52-week low of $206.87, having declined over 42% in the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company maintains strong financial health with a "GOOD" overall rating.
The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas dismissed the case without prejudice, likely due to a timing error in Humana’s filing, according to Guggenheim. The court determined Humana had not exhausted all administrative appeals before initiating the lawsuit.
The rating downgrade, which Humana unsuccessfully appealed to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in April, will reduce the percentage of Humana Medicare Advantage members in plans rated four stars or higher from approximately 94% in 2024 to about 25% in 2025.
Guggenheim maintained its Buy rating and $326.00 price target on Humana stock, noting the dismissal was widely expected by investors. The firm estimates the star rating downgrade could create a $2 billion to $3 billion profit headwind for Humana’s 2026 earnings.
Guggenheim believes Humana may refile the lawsuit at a later date and maintains that the company’s longer-term earnings growth trajectory remains attractive, with expectations for low-20% earnings per share growth by 2027 not dependent on star rating improvements.
In other recent news, Humana faced a legal setback as its lawsuit against the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services regarding its Stars ratings was dismissed. The court ruled the case premature, as Humana had not completed the necessary administrative appeals process. Despite this, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Leerink Partners, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James, and Barclays (LON:BARC) maintained their ratings on Humana, citing that the lawsuit’s outcome was largely anticipated and already factored into earnings projections. Humana’s earnings bridge to 2028 had considered the potential loss in Stars ratings, with current estimates for 2026 earnings per share showing a wide range. Raymond James highlighted that each 10% recovery in STAR ratings could increase Humana’s earnings per share by approximately $2.60. Meanwhile, Humana announced the expansion of its Medicaid plan, Humana Healthy Horizons, now available to Virginia Cardinal Care beneficiaries, further solidifying its presence in the state. As part of this expansion, Humana committed an additional $2 million to the Virginia Health Care Foundation over the next five years. These developments reflect Humana’s ongoing efforts to navigate regulatory challenges while broadening its healthcare services.
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