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On Monday, Indraprastha Gas (NS:IGAS) Limited (NS:IGL) faced a downgrade in its stock rating by Jefferies, shifting from 'Hold' to 'Underperform'. The firm also reduced the price target for the company's shares to INR295 from the previous INR390.
The revision comes in response to the Indian government's recent decision to decrease the allocation of administered price mechanism (APM) gas to compressed natural gas (CNG) providers for the second consecutive month.
The analyst at Jefferies highlighted concerns about the future availability of inexpensive domestic gas for CNG players, predicting that the APM allocation could diminish to nearly zero by the middle of calendar year 2025. This anticipated reduction is expected to lead to a decrease in EBITDA margin for Indraprastha Gas Limited by INR 1 to INR 2.5 per standard cubic meter.
The financial implications of the reduced APM allocations have led Jefferies to revise its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the fiscal year 2026. The forecast for Indraprastha Gas Limited, along with other industry players such as Mahanagar Gas Limited (MAHGL) and Gujarat Gas Limited (GUJGA), has been affected, with projected reductions of 27%, 31%, and 19% in EPS, respectively.
In addition to the rating downgrade for Indraprastha Gas Limited, Jefferies has also downgraded Mahanagar Gas Limited to 'Underperform' from 'Buy'. These downgrades reflect the firm's cautious stance on the sector due to the anticipated policy changes affecting the cost structure and profitability of CNG companies in India.
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