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On Monday, Jefferies analyst Suneet Kamath adjusted the rating for Brighthouse Financial , Inc. (NASDAQ:BHF) from Buy to Hold, setting a price target of $64.00. Kamath’s assessment followed a remarkable 20.79% surge in the company’s shares last week, bringing the stock price to $61.71, which he attributed to market speculation after a Financial Times article suggested that Brighthouse Financial might be exploring a sale, either partially or in its entirety. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of $64, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions.
Kamath expressed skepticism about the potential for a partial sale, such as to an Alternative Asset Manager in exchange for an Investment Management Agreement, to serve as a significant driver for the stock’s value. He indicated that a more optimistic outlook on Brighthouse Financial would require the assumption of a full acquisition at a premium, a scenario he is not inclined to consider as a base case. InvestingPro data reveals that while the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 1.66, deeper insights into its valuation and financial health metrics are available through InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports.
The analyst also raised concerns about what the pursuit of a deal might imply about the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 Risk-Based Capital (RBC), hinting at the possibility of negative implications.
In evaluating Brighthouse Financial’s worth to a potential acquirer, Kamath identified three key components: the net present value (NPV) of future Free Cash Flow (FCF), the company’s $1.3 billion of holding company cash, and a control premium, which includes the value of its leading position in the Retirement Income Liability Annuity (RILA) market. His scenario analysis estimated respective values of $52, $22, and $13 for these components, totaling $86. This valuation would equate to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 4 times, a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6 times, and a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 21 times, assuming near-term FCF of $250 million.
In other recent news, Brighthouse Financial has been the subject of significant developments. Barclays (LON:BARC) has upgraded Brighthouse Financial’s stock to Overweight, citing a risk-to-reward ratio of nearly 1:3. The new price target of $85.00 was set based on a discounted cash flow analysis, which includes a 14% discount rate applied to Brighthouse’s projected cash flows and an additional $1.25 billion premium for the company’s distribution platform.
In addition to Barclays’ upgrade, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has also upgraded Brighthouse Financial from Equalweight to Overweight, anticipating an earnings per share (EPS) upside resulting from late fee rule preparatory actions. The firm also increased the price target to $76.00, marking a 117% rise.
On the earnings front, Brighthouse Financial reported a decline in adjusted earnings for Q3 2024, but emphasized its strong capital position, ongoing stock repurchases, and sales growth in annuity and life insurance products. The company aims to restore its Risk-Based Capital (RBC) ratio to 400%-450%, with a reinsurance agreement expected to boost this ratio.
Furthermore, Brighthouse Financial is reportedly exploring a sale, working with advisors from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) to evaluate potential offers. The company is in the early stages of considering bids for the entire company or raising minority equity. These are the recent developments within the company.
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