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Jefferies downgraded Packaging Corp . of America (NYSE:PKG) from Buy to Hold on Monday, while lowering its price target to $205.00 from $245.00. According to InvestingPro data, five analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward, with the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of 19.7x.
The research firm cited valuation concerns relative to competitors, despite acknowledging Packaging Corp. as "best-in-class" in its sector. Jefferies expects the company’s volumes to improve in the second half of 2025 from market share gains. The company maintains strong financial fundamentals, with InvestingPro analysis showing a 23-year track record of consistent dividend payments and healthy liquidity ratios.
Jefferies analyst Philip Ng indicated that competitors Schweitzer-Mauduit International (NYSE:MATV) and International Paper are positioned to narrow the gap in returns and valuation compared to Packaging Corp.
The firm specifically noted that Schweitzer-Mauduit could see its multiple increase as it delivers on synergy targets and improves financial disclosures for U.S. investors, reflecting an improved industry structure.
According to Jefferies’ 2025 estimates, Schweitzer-Mauduit is trading at a significant discount compared to Packaging Corp. (-34%) and International Paper (-25%).
In other recent news, Packaging Corporation of America has been the focus of several notable developments. Moody’s Ratings upgraded the company’s senior unsecured ratings from Baa2 to Baa1, reflecting its strong performance and prudent financial policy. UBS initiated coverage with a Neutral rating, noting concerns that market expectations for the company’s future EBITDA levels are higher than their own projections. Meanwhile, Citi analysts reported sluggish demand in the box stock market, with recycled linerboard prices under pressure and varying demand trends across regions.
Additionally, Truist Securities expressed a positive outlook on containerboard pricing, following Georgia-Pacific’s announcement to permanently shut down its Cedar Springs mill, which will remove about 2.5% of North American capacity. This closure, along with others in the industry, is seen as a strategic move to align supply with demand, potentially supporting containerboard pricing. Furthermore, the U.S. is negotiating trade agreements that could boost consumer confidence and increase demand for boxes. These developments could lead to price increases for containerboard products, particularly with the seasonally stronger demand expected in the coming months.
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