J.Jill stock target cut to $22 at TD Cowen, maintains Hold

Published 20/03/2025, 15:44
J.Jill stock target cut to $22 at TD Cowen, maintains Hold

On Thursday, TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on J.Jill Inc. (NYSE: JILL) shares, while reducing the price target from $28.00 to $22.00. Currently trading at $19.22, near its 52-week low of $18.04, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued. This adjustment comes after J.Jill reported a fourth quarter for fiscal year 2024 that surpassed expectations. However, the company’s guidance for the first quarter of 2025 and the full fiscal year was below the consensus estimates, with three analysts recently revising their earnings expectations downward.

The analysts at TD Cowen noted that the start of 2025 has been soft for J.Jill, but they anticipate that the retailer’s enhanced omnichannel capabilities could serve as a catalyst in the second half of the year. The company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 70.4%, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. Despite the challenges faced in February and the current subdued consumer demand, management at J.Jill expects conditions to improve throughout the year as the company eases into more favorable comparisons and begins to see the benefits of their Order Management System (OMS) implementation on both the top and bottom lines. (InvestingPro subscribers have access to 12 additional key insights about JILL’s financial health and growth potential.)

TD Cowen’s commentary highlighted that similar to other specialty retailers, J.Jill encountered difficulties in February, and overall consumer demand remains muted. Nonetheless, the analysts believe that the fiscal year 2025 guidance likely includes a degree of conservatism and they commend the management team’s disciplined approach.

The analysts emphasized the importance of consumer sentiment as a key variable moving forward and will be closely monitoring the OMS implementation for any unexpected disruptions that could arise. They concluded their remarks by stating, "Our take is that management’s execution remains disciplined and controlled, but until the overall macro trends start to improve, JILL’s consumers will remain price-conscious. We remain Hold and moderate our PT to $22 based on ~6x FY2 P/E."

In other recent news, J.Jill Inc. reported its Q1 2025 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.32 compared to the forecast of $0.21. The company’s revenue slightly surpassed projections, coming in at $142.8 million. J.Jill’s strong performance was underpinned by robust sales in key product categories and the successful implementation of new marketing strategies. The company also reported a gross margin of 70.4% for the full year 2024 and an adjusted EBITDA of $107.1 million.

Additionally, Telsey Advisory Group adjusted its price target for J.Jill shares, reducing it from $31.00 to $21.00 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. This adjustment follows the company’s fourth-quarter performance, which showed better-than-expected sales and expense management despite a gross margin that did not meet expectations. J.Jill has also expressed concerns about a slow start to the first quarter of 2025 and an uncertain short-term outlook. The company plans to continue investing in marketing, systems, and store enhancements to support long-term growth.

Furthermore, J.Jill anticipates a sales increase of 1-3% for FY 2025 and plans to open 5-10 new stores within the year. The company has initiated a quarterly dividend program, reflecting confidence in its financial stability. Despite these positive developments, consumer sentiment remains cautious, impacting spending habits and necessitating a strategic approach to promotions and inventory management.

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