JMP cuts Jamf Holding price target to $27, keeps Outperform rating

On Friday, JMP Securities analyst Joey Marincek adjusted the price target for Jamf Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:JAMF) to $27.00 from the previous $30.00, yet maintained a Market Outperform rating on the stock. The revision followed Jamf’s mixed financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for JAMF range from $17 to $30, with the stock currently trading at $14.73, suggesting significant potential upside. The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.17, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.15, and a non-GAAP operating income of $29.7 million, exceeding the expected $26.0 million and reflecting an 18.2% margin.

Jamf’s total revenue reached approximately $163.0 million, a slight increase from the consensus of $162.5 million, marking an 8% year-over-year growth. However, this growth rate showed a deceleration from the 12% increase reported in the previous quarter. Additionally, the company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 10%, which was below the anticipated 11% and a decrease from 12% growth in the last quarter. Security ARR also experienced a slowdown, growing by 16% compared to 26% in the prior quarter.

Despite these mixed results, Jamf’s stock remained flat in aftermarket trading, following a 5% rise year-to-date, contrasting with a 1% decline in the Russell 3000 index. With a current market capitalization of $1.89 billion, InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis indicates that JAMF is currently undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for investors. Get access to detailed valuation metrics and 12+ additional ProTips with an InvestingPro subscription. The company’s guidance for the first quarter of 2025 projected revenue between $165.5 million and $167.5 million, with a growth rate of 9% to 10% year-over-year, which is slightly below the consensus estimate of $168.0 million. The non-GAAP operating income is forecasted to be between $35.5 million and $37.5 million, which is above the consensus of $32.4 million.

For the full year 2025, Jamf anticipates revenue to be in the range of $675.5 million to $680.5 million, with an approximate 8% year-over-year growth, and non-GAAP operating income to be between $142.5 million and $146.5 million. The company also expects a significant increase in unlevered free cash flow growth of 75%. Furthermore, Jamf aims to achieve the rule of 40—a financial metric indicating a balance between growth and profitability—by the end of 2026.

In other recent news, Jamf Holding Corp. has achieved a significant milestone with its Jamf Pro and Jamf School products attaining StateRAMP Authorized status. This certification, which is the highest level within the StateRAMP program, indicates that the products meet stringent security controls required by state and local governments and educational institutions. This development underscores Jamf’s commitment to high-security standards and compliance, as verified by a third-party assessment organization and the StateRAMP Project Management Office. Additionally, JPMorgan has initiated coverage on Jamf with an Overweight rating and a price target of $20.00, highlighting the company’s strong positioning to benefit from the increasing use of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) devices in enterprise settings. The firm anticipates a stabilization in Jamf’s revenue growth by fiscal year 2025, with potential re-acceleration in 2026. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that this could lead to a rebound in the company’s valuation multiple, which has seen a decline over the past three years. The firm remains optimistic about Jamf’s future performance, expecting improvement as market conditions stabilize. These recent developments reflect Jamf’s strategic focus and potential for growth in its market niche.

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