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Tuesday, JMP Securities reiterated its Market Outperform rating on nCino Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) with a steady price target of $43.00, representing about 31% upside from the current price of $32.85. The firm’s analyst expressed expectations of a cautious fiscal year 2026 (FY26) guidance from the company, coinciding with the appointment of a new CEO. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 1.95 and operates with moderate debt levels. The intention, as stated by the analyst, is to provide a benchmark that nCino can surpass and subsequently raise.
The analyst held the non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) at $0.73, aligning with the consensus of $0.72, on projected revenues of $540.4 million, which would represent a year-over-year increase of 13%. This growth trajectory aligns with the company’s historical performance, as InvestingPro shows a robust 5-year revenue CAGR of 39%. However, adjustments were made to the forecasts for the following years. The FY26 non-GAAP EPS estimate was reduced to $0.87 from $0.89, below the consensus of $0.88, with revenue expectations also trimmed to $603.4 million from the market’s anticipation of $618.2 million, indicating a 12% year-over-year growth.
Furthermore, for fiscal year 2027 (FY27), the non-GAAP EPS estimate was lowered to $1.08 from $1.12, which is beneath the consensus of $1.14. This adjustment was accompanied by a revised revenue prediction of $682.4 million, down from the consensus estimate of $711.1 million, yet still marking a 13% year-over-year increase.
The analyst cited the main reasons for the tempered estimates as the new CEO’s likely conservative initial guidance and the continued subdued mortgage volumes driven by persistently high interest rates. Despite these factors, JMP Securities maintains its positive stance on nCino’s stock, as reflected in the reaffirmed Market Outperform rating and price target.
In other recent news, nCino, Inc. has announced the appointment of Sean Desmond as its new President and CEO, succeeding Pierre Naudé, who will continue as Executive Chairman of the Board. These leadership changes come with the company reaffirming its financial guidance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, aiming for a 15% subscription revenue growth in FY26. In addition to the CEO transition, Chris Gufford has been appointed as the new Chief Product Officer, succeeding Desmond. As part of recent developments, nCino has also updated the employment agreements for its top executives, aligning with market practices and reflecting current compensation levels. Analysts have been closely monitoring these changes, with firms like Barclays (LON:BARC) upgrading nCino stock due to expected faster revenue recognition in 2025, and UBS initiating coverage with a Buy rating, projecting a compound annual growth rate of about 15% through fiscal year 2028.
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