JPMorgan cautious on Fortinet stock despite optimism over upcoming refresh cycle

Published 19/11/2024, 12:20
JPMorgan cautious on Fortinet stock despite optimism over upcoming refresh cycle

On Tuesday, JPMorgan updated its outlook on Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) stock, increasing the price target to $99.00 from the previous $84.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The adjustment comes after Fortinet's Analyst Day in New York, where the cybersecurity firm outlined its growth strategy and mid-term financial model.

The company's presentation highlighted an anticipated refresh cycle for firewalls, with about 25% of Fortinet's installed base scheduled for End of Service (EOS) by 2026, and a significant number following in 2027. This detail has reinforced JPMorgan's expectation of an upcoming refresh cycle.

Fortinet also provided insights into its product composition within Secure Networking, SASE (Secure Access Service Edge), and SecOps (Security Operations) segments. While these areas have shown solid growth, the analyst noted that SASE and SecOps are particularly competitive markets.

The newly presented mid-term target model by Fortinet suggests an ambition for higher combined revenue growth and operating margin performance. However, this target is perceived to be lower than some investor expectations, as gleaned from recent investor interactions.

The revised price target by JPMorgan reflects a greater certainty in the upcoming refresh cycle. Nonetheless, the firm remains neutral on Fortinet's shares, anticipating that the expected growth may be offset by pressures on margins and free cash flow in the near term.

In other recent news, Fortinet, a global leader in cybersecurity solutions, reported strong Q3 2024 results with total revenue rising by 13% to $1.508 billion. This performance featured a record gross margin of 83.2% and an operating margin of 36.1%. The company observed a 2% growth in product revenue and a significant 19% increase in service revenue, largely due to robust demand for SaaS solutions.

Additionally, Fortinet announced the appointment of Janet Napolitano to its board of directors. Napolitano's experience in national security and public policy is expected to bolster Fortinet's strategic initiatives and collaborations in the cybersecurity sector.

Analysts have provided mixed reviews on Fortinet's performance. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) raised its price target on Fortinet's shares from $77.00 to $90.00, maintaining a Hold rating, while CapitalOne increased its price target from $69.00 to $84.00, maintaining an Equal-weight rating. Citi, however, reiterated a Neutral rating, focusing on Fortinet's updated revenue, billings, and operating margin framework.

Despite these successes, Fortinet issued cautious future billings guidance due to large deals maturing and slower progress on larger deals in Q4. Nonetheless, the company anticipates a significant firewall refresh cycle to begin in 2025. These are recent developments that investors should take into consideration.

InvestingPro Insights

Fortinet's recent Analyst Day presentation and JPMorgan's updated outlook align with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's impressive financial performance is reflected in its market capitalization of $70.42 billion and a robust revenue of $5.71 billion over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024.

Fortinet's strong position in the cybersecurity market is underscored by its impressive gross profit margin of 79.71%, which supports the InvestingPro Tip highlighting the company's "impressive gross profit margins." This financial strength allows Fortinet to invest in innovation and capitalize on the anticipated firewall refresh cycle mentioned in the analyst report.

Another InvestingPro Tip notes that "35 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period," which aligns with JPMorgan's increased price target and the company's ambitious mid-term financial model. However, investors should be aware that Fortinet is "trading at a high earnings multiple," with a P/E ratio of 46.05, which may reflect the market's high expectations for future growth.

For those interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 18 additional tips for Fortinet, providing a comprehensive view of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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