JPMorgan cuts Bank Negara Indonesia stock rating, lowers PT

Published 29/04/2025, 09:16
JPMorgan cuts Bank Negara Indonesia stock rating, lowers PT

On Tuesday, JPMorgan downgraded Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI:IJ) (OTC:PBNNF) stock from Neutral to Underweight, adjusting the price target to IDR3,500 from the previous IDR3,900. The revision follows the bank’s first-quarter results for 2025, which prompted the firm to lower its 2025-26 earnings estimates by 4-10%. This adjustment places JPMorgan’s projections 16-20% below consensus estimates for the next three years.

The downgrade is based on expectations that Bank Negara Indonesia will likely lower its financial guidance during its second-quarter briefing. JPMorgan anticipates a revision in the bank’s net interest margin (NIM), which is currently projected at 4-4.2% versus the 3.94% reported in the first quarter. Additionally, credit costs are expected to be adjusted from the current forecast of around 100 basis points (bps) to the 94 bps observed in the first quarter.

JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that these anticipated guidance revisions could lead to negative adjustments for Bank Negara Indonesia’s stock. The firm also predicts that the upcoming earnings report from Bank Mandiri (BMRI), scheduled for release tomorrow, may trigger a broader re-evaluation of the sector’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts.

In light of these factors, JPMorgan advises investors to reduce their holdings in Bank Negara Indonesia stock, taking advantage of the recent uptick from its lows. The new price target set for June 2026 reflects a more cautious outlook for the bank’s stock performance in the near future.

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