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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts adjusted their outlook on KGI Financial Holding (2883:TT), downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral and reducing the price target to NT$18.80 from NT$22.00. The downgrade reflects concerns about the company’s earnings and dividend prospects amid market uncertainties.
The analysts cited several factors influencing their decision. They anticipate that the earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share (DPS) for the fiscal year 2025 could be significantly lower than previously estimated, assuming the USD/TWD exchange rate remains at current levels. KGI Financial may face earnings headwinds in the second quarter of 2025, which the analysts believe could be already anticipated by the market.
Despite recent rebounds in equity markets and ETF rebalancing flows, which might have bolstered valuations, JPMorgan analysts argue that these factors may not fully account for the potential negative impact on the company’s book value per share (BVPS) and FY25E DPS. They also mention that while potential regulatory support could alleviate capital pressure in the short term, it may not be sufficient to mitigate the long-term effects.
The report also highlights the possibility of both upside and downside risks associated with TWD FX rates. Increased volatility in equity markets and FX rates could obscure the visibility of EPS and DPS at KGI Financial’s life insurance operations. This volatility, according to the analysts, is likely to limit the upside valuation of the company’s stock.
In conclusion, JPMorgan’s downgrade to Neutral is driven by expectations of more substantial earnings challenges for KGI Financial in FY25 and a potential decline in dividend yields over the next 12 months. The revised price target of NT$18.80 reflects these updated projections and the broader financial landscape the company is navigating.
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