JPMorgan lowers Sociedad Quimica y Minera price target on lithium outlook

Published 12/06/2025, 13:26
JPMorgan lowers Sociedad Quimica y Minera price target on lithium outlook

JPMorgan lowered its price target on Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE:SQM) stock to $39.00 from $44.00 on Thursday, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the Chilean lithium producer. According to InvestingPro data, SQM currently trades at a P/E ratio of 14.4x and maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 2.88x.

The price target reduction follows SQM’s first-quarter results and JPMorgan’s adjustment of its long-term lithium price forecast to $15,000 per ton of lithium carbonate equivalent.

The investment bank cited mixed signals in the lithium market, noting that while prices appear to be deep into the cost curve and electric vehicle demand is improving globally, several factors warrant caution about a sustainable price rebound.

JPMorgan specifically highlighted trade tensions, an oversupplied value chain, and continuing supply additions as concerns for the lithium sector’s outlook.

The firm reduced its 2025 EBITDA estimate for SQM to $1.407 billion, which is 4% below consensus, and noted that the company is currently burning $77 million in cash while trading at approximately 9 times EV/EBITDA for 2025.

In other recent news, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, which fell short of analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.48 compared to the consensus estimate of $0.61. However, the company’s revenue exceeded estimates, reaching $1.04 billion against an expected $1.02 billion, despite a year-over-year decline from $1.08 billion. SQM achieved record first-quarter lithium sales volumes, up approximately 27% year-over-year, driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems. CEO Ricardo Ramos noted that lithium prices have recently declined due to oversupply, which may impact future earnings. The iodine segment performed well, with steady market growth and elevated prices, and SQM plans to maintain stable iodine sales volumes. Additionally, the company announced leadership changes, appointing Gina Ocqueteau Tacchini as the new Chair and Gonzalo Guerrero Yamamoto as Vice Chairman. Analysts from BMO Capital Markets and Jefferies have adjusted their price targets for SQM, with BMO lowering it to $45 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Jefferies setting a new target of $51, keeping a Buy rating. Both firms highlighted SQM’s strong position in the lithium market and its strategic expansion plans.

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