JPMorgan maintains BioCryst stock with $10 target, upbeat on growth

Monday, shares of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) are in focus following comments from JPMorgan, which reiterated an Overweight rating and a $10.00 price target on the company. The stock, currently trading at $8.18, has shown remarkable strength with a 61% return over the past year according to InvestingPro data. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests confidence in the company’s financial trajectory, particularly in the performance of its drug Orladeyo.

The firm’s recent guidance update indicates an expected increase in Orladeyo revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with projections now ranging between $535 million and $550 million, up from the previous forecast of $515 million to $535 million. This revision suggests a year-over-year growth of 24% at the midpoint, following a 34% growth in the same product’s revenue in the previous year. InvestingPro data shows the company’s strong revenue momentum, with a nearly 30% growth in the last twelve months and an impressive five-year revenue CAGR of 74%.

Management’s updated outlook also includes a total revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025, which is set to hit between $560 million and $575 million, marking an approximate 26% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. These figures are adjusted from the prior guidance of $540 million to $560 million.

The higher revenue expectations for Orladeyo are anticipated to bring some increase in expenses, primarily in the costs of goods sold (COGS), distribution costs, and incentive compensation. However, the company has reiterated its non-GAAP operating expense (OpEx) guidance for 2025, which remains at $425 million to $435 million, with the anticipated expense increases accounted for at the higher end of the range.

JPMorgan highlights that the revised guidance supports a clear path to profitability for BioCryst and establishes a solid foundation for the company to achieve a 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, which is higher than JPMorgan’s estimated CAGR of around 15% from 2024 to 2027.

In the upcoming earnings call, JPMorgan intends to seek further details on the assumptions behind the guidance update, as well as insights into quarterly or seasonal dynamics and expectations regarding competitive dynamics in the hereditary angioedema (HAE) market over time. The firm also notes that with a sustainable financial base and the potential for continued growth of Orladeyo, BioCryst is increasingly well-positioned, especially as its early-stage pipeline begins to deliver de-risking data later in the year.

In other recent news, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals announced its financial outlook for 2025, projecting net revenue for its drug Orladeyo to be between $515 million and $535 million. The company also revealed preliminary unaudited figures for 2024, with Orladeyo net revenue reaching $437 million, a 34% increase from the previous year. In Portugal, Orladeyo received a recommendation from Infarmed for the routine prevention of hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks in patients aged 12 and older, marking a significant milestone for BioCryst in the region. JMP Securities maintained its Market Outperform rating on BioCryst, with a price target of $18, citing the drug’s growing market adoption and potential to reach peak U.S. sales of $800 million. Evercore ISI analyst Liisa Bayko increased the stock’s price target to $12, noting BioCryst’s strong performance and confidence in the company’s financial trajectory. The analyst suggested that the 2025 revenue guidance for Orladeyo might be understated, anticipating revenue could reach $549 million. BioCryst is preparing to submit a new drug application for Orladeyo granules for children up to age 12, which could expand its market. The company’s operating expenses for 2025 are projected between $485 million and $495 million, with expectations of approaching EPS profitability and positive cash flow in the second half of 2025.

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