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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts reiterated their Overweight rating on Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) stock, maintaining a price target of $395.00, representing a 13% upside from the current price of $348.95. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for CAT range from $283 to $425, with the stock currently rated as slightly overvalued based on its Fair Value analysis. The analysts highlighted the performance of CAT Financial, noting its increased contribution to the company’s overall profits in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year.
CAT Financial Services accounted for approximately 6% of Caterpillar’s consolidated revenue and about 7% of its adjusted profit before tax during the first quarter. The financial services revenue rose by around 1% year-over-year to $860 million, driven by favorable impacts from higher average earnings assets, although partially offset by lower average financing rates. The company maintains strong financial health with an InvestingPro Overall Score of "GOOD," supported by robust cash flows and moderate debt levels.
Despite the overall revenue growth, CAT Financial’s profit decreased by approximately 24% year-over-year, totaling $130 million in the first quarter. The decline was attributed mainly to the absence of a $33 million insurance settlement from the previous year and an increased provision for credit losses. The provision for credit losses rose by $22 million year-over-year to $29 million.
Credit quality indicators remained stable, with past due accounts at 1.58% of total receivables at the end of the first quarter, below the 10-year average of 2.47%. The allowance for credit losses was slightly lower at 0.95% of finance receivables compared to 1.01% in the prior year, while write-offs net of recoveries decreased to $20 million from $55 million the previous year. Want deeper insights into Caterpillar’s financial health and future prospects? InvestingPro subscribers get access to exclusive analysis, including 12 additional ProTips and comprehensive Pro Research Reports that transform complex Wall Street data into actionable intelligence.
In other recent news, Caterpillar has been the focus of several analyst upgrades and new contracts. Baird analysts upgraded Caterpillar’s stock rating to Outperform, raising the price target to $395 from $309, citing improved orders and stabilization in dealer sales. UBS also upgraded Caterpillar from Sell to Neutral, increasing the price target to $357, following positive trade discussions with China. In addition, BofA Securities raised Caterpillar’s price target to $385, highlighting a valuation gap with peer Deere (NYSE:DE) & Company and suggesting Caterpillar’s earnings profile is more resilient than in past downturns.
Citi maintained its Buy rating for Caterpillar with a $370 target, noting optimism around infrastructure funding and steady growth in the global mining sector. Caterpillar, along with other companies, secured a $980 million contract for the FEMA generator program, set to run until 2030. This contract involves the Defense Logistics Agency and aims to support FEMA’s emergency management efforts. These developments reflect a positive outlook for Caterpillar, with analysts emphasizing robust earnings prospects and potential growth opportunities.
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