JPMorgan maintains Overweight rating on Costco stock as June sales beat expectations

Published 10/07/2025, 12:42
JPMorgan maintains Overweight rating on Costco stock as June sales beat expectations

Investing.com - JPMorgan has reiterated its Overweight rating and $1,115.00 price target on Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), a $435 billion market cap retail giant, following the retailer’s June sales report that showed better-than-expected performance. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $620 to $1,225, with the company maintaining an impressive 22-year streak of dividend payments.

The company’s U.S. core comparable sales increased 5.5% in June, slightly below the Street’s consensus estimate of 6.0% but ahead of buy-side expectations of approximately 5.0%. This performance aligns with Costco’s broader revenue growth trend, which InvestingPro data shows at 5.94% over the last twelve months. U.S. traffic rose 2.8%, while enterprise-wide traffic increased 3.4%, with average ticket up 2.8% year-over-year, excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange impacts.

Costco’s international segments outperformed analyst expectations, with Canada posting core comparable sales growth of 7.9% versus estimates of 5.7%, and Other International delivering 8.2% growth compared to the 6.4% forecast. The strongest performing U.S. regions were the Northwest, Midwest, and Southeast, while Australia, Mexico, and Taiwan led international performance.

E-commerce sales grew 11.2% excluding foreign exchange effects, and the company saw its cannibalization headwind moderate slightly to 60 basis points in June, down from 70 basis points in May.

JPMorgan noted that the Northeast region, a core market for competitor BJ’s Wholesale, was not among Costco’s best-performing U.S. regions for the first time after nearly a year-long streak from June 2024 to April 2025, potentially supporting market concerns about BJ’s upcoming sales results. For deeper insights into Costco’s financial health (rated "GREAT" by InvestingPro), valuation metrics, and 12+ additional ProTips, subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Costco Wholesale Corporation reported an 8% increase in net sales for June, amounting to $26.44 billion, compared to $24.48 billion in the same period last year. The company’s comparable sales for the five-week period ending July 6 rose 5.8% company-wide, with adjusted figures excluding gasoline and foreign exchange impacts showing a 6.2% increase. E-commerce sales were particularly strong, increasing by 11.5% for the month. Analysts from Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating on Costco, despite noting a deceleration in sales growth. DA Davidson, on the other hand, held a Neutral rating, citing Costco’s premium valuation as a factor. In another development, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) has filed a lawsuit against Costco, alleging the sale of unauthorized copies of its products. The lawsuit claims that Costco’s Kirkland brand is selling knockoffs of Lululemon’s popular items, potentially confusing consumers. This legal action highlights ongoing tensions between Costco and other retailers over product differentiation and intellectual property rights.

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