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On Friday, JPMorgan analyst Marcus Diebel increased the price target for AUTO1 Group SE (AG1:GR) (OTC: ATOGF) to €29.00, up from €28.00, while reaffirming an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment comes as JPMorgan anticipates the company’s first-quarter results, which are scheduled for release on May 7, 2025. Diebel’s projections are once again above consensus estimates, citing slightly higher gross profit per unit (GPU) and a robust outlook for unit sales and profit growth.
AUTO1’s recent earnings upgrades and share price performance have set expectations high, but JPMorgan forecasts continued momentum into the first quarter. The firm has adjusted its EBITDA estimate to €40 million, compared to the company-consensus of €36 million. This forecast is driven by high unit growth in both the Merchant and Retail segments, ongoing cost efficiencies, and improved leverage.
Looking beyond the upcoming quarter, JPMorgan has updated its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecast for AUTO1 to €180 million, an increase from the previous €175 million and above the company-consensus of €171 million. These figures are at the upper end of management’s guidance range for adjusted EBITDA, which was set at €135 million to €165 million—a range that JPMorgan previously suggested might be conservative given the operational and market momentum.
AUTO1 has been placed on JPMorgan’s Positive Catalyst Watch in anticipation of the Q1 results, with the potential for guidance to be exceeded acting as a short-term catalyst to the company’s long-term narrative. As AUTO1’s turnaround story continues to unfold, JPMorgan expects investor attention to increasingly focus on the company’s long-term potential. The firm sees significant upside for AUTO1, with opportunities for greater market share in Europe and multiple untapped GPU levers, including financing, to generate considerable profit potential.
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