JPMorgan raises Axon stock target to $665 on robust Q4 results

Published 26/02/2025, 12:04
JPMorgan raises Axon stock target to $665 on robust Q4 results

On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee increased the price target for Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON) to $665 from the previous target of $530, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. With a current market capitalization of $37.7 billion and trading at $496.65, InvestingPro data suggests the stock is trading above its Fair Value. The adjustment follows Axon’s fourth-quarter results for the year 2024, which surpassed expectations, showcasing revenue and EBITDA figures that exceeded both estimates and the company’s own guidance.

The impressive financial performance was attributed to strong momentum across Axon’s product portfolio, especially within Axon Cloud & Services, which experienced double-digit revenue growth both sequentially and year-over-year. Axon’s management also noted the robust demand for OSP bundles, particularly the premium versions, and strong interest in products like Draft One and the AI Era Plan. These factors contributed to a significant increase in Axon’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which reached $1.0 billion, up from $0.9 billion in the third quarter of 2024 and $0.7 billion the previous year.

Addressing investor concerns about the demand outlook for 2025, Axon provided a positive full-year revenue outlook of $2.6 billion at the mid-point, marking a 25% year-over-year increase. The company also downplayed risks related to changes in federal funding and the Flock Safety partnership. This confidence is further supported by a robust year-end backlog exceeding $10 billion, compared to over $7 billion at the end of 2023.

Axon has observed strong booking trends in emerging customer verticals, such as international and enterprise markets, even securing the largest deal in its history with a global logistics provider during the fourth quarter of 2024. Consequently, the company has raised its Total (EPA:TTEF) Addressable Market (TAM) estimation to $129 billion from $77 billion nearly a year prior, emphasizing a strong opportunity pipeline that bolsters its confidence in maintaining a booking growth rate similar to that of its revenue growth.

In light of these stronger demand trends, JPMorgan has increased its revenue outlook for Axon, while EBITDA estimates remain largely in line, with a slight increase expected due to elevated operational expenses. The raised December 2025 price target to $665 reflects the analyst’s continued confidence in Axon’s position, driven by the company’s strong portfolio momentum, increasing mix of software and subscription services, and solid penetration into new customer verticals. Despite a recent 16.4% YTD decline, the stock has delivered an impressive 82.87% return over the past year. For deeper insights into Axon’s valuation and growth prospects, including 23 additional ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis, visit InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Axon Enterprise reported impressive financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. The company exceeded analysts’ expectations with a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.08, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.43. Revenue for the quarter reached $575.1 million, marking a 34% year-over-year increase and exceeding the anticipated $566.7 million. Axon’s adjusted EBITDA also performed well, registering at $142.0 million, a 56% increase from the previous year, and above the consensus of $138.7 million.

For the fiscal year 2025, Axon provided revenue guidance between $2.55 billion and $2.65 billion, aligning with the consensus estimate of $2.566 billion. The company also set an adjusted EBITDA target of $640 million to $670 million, compared to a consensus estimate of $658.8 million. Citizens JMP analyst Trevor Walsh maintained a Market Outperform rating for Axon, with a price target of $725, reflecting confidence in the company’s continued growth despite recent stock price fluctuations.

Additionally, Axon continues to expand its product offerings, particularly in AI and drone technology, and reported an increase in annual recurring revenue to $1 billion, up 37% year-over-year. The company has also seen strong adoption of its AI tools, with rapid customer uptake of its AI Aeroplan. These developments underscore Axon’s ongoing commitment to innovation and its strategic focus on expanding its market reach.

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