JPMorgan raises Maersk stock price target to DKK7,900

Published 09/05/2025, 08:26
JPMorgan raises Maersk stock price target to DKK7,900

On Friday, JPMorgan analyst Alexia Dogani adjusted the price target on AP Moller Maersk (MAERSKB:DC) (OTC:AMKBY) shares to DKK 7,900, up from DKK 7,850, while maintaining an Underweight rating on the stock. The adjustment followed Maersk’s first-quarter 2025 results, which exceeded expectations due to better Ocean freight rates, although volume growth remained stagnant.

Maersk’s management has altered its market volume forecast for the year, now anticipating a range between a 1% decline and a 4% increase, a revision from the previous expectation of a solid 4% growth. This change is attributed to trade uncertainties that are affecting customer decisions. Additionally, the company has abandoned its plans to resume Red Sea voyages within 2025, which was previously expected to counterbalance a softer demand outlook. Despite these challenges, Maersk has kept its 2025 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) guidance unchanged, projecting a range of $0 to $3 billion.

The analyst noted that shipping volumes from China to the United States have decreased significantly, falling by 30-40% year-over-year, now accounting for merely 5% of Maersk’s network. In contrast, other routes have seen a 4% growth in April and early May, likely buoyed by the current 90-day pause on trade measures against Chinese exports to the U.S. Despite these positive indicators, JPMorgan views the higher end of Maersk’s guidance as overly optimistic against the backdrop of current demand.

Dogani’s analysis anticipates a quarter-over-quarter decline in EBIT for the upcoming quarters, with the exit rate into 2026 suggesting substantial losses. This outlook is further exacerbated by an expected return of 7% capacity that has been disrupted by Red Sea diversions. The analyst predicts this will lead to a 13% year-over-year increase in supply capacity and a 45% year-over-year decline in spot rates in 2026. The revised price target of DKK 7,900 implies a roughly 30% downside from current levels.

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