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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts upgraded United Spirits Ltd. (BSE:NSE:UNSP) stock rating from Neutral to Overweight. The analysts also increased the price target to INR1,760 from INR1,415, citing a stronger earnings growth trajectory and improved margin expectations.
The upgrade is primarily driven by confidence in higher earnings growth for the company, particularly in the fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The analysts noted a 3% to 7% increase in expected EBITDA for these years, supported by a robust growth path for the Prestige & Above portfolio and better-than-expected margin performance.
JPMorgan highlighted favorable regulatory developments in certain states, such as Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand, as factors that could enhance growth in the upcoming quarters. Additionally, the recent UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is anticipated to boost BIO/BII sales significantly in fiscal year 2027.
The analysts also foresee a 50 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin from fiscal year 2025 to 2027, following a 180 basis points increase in fiscal year 2025. This is attributed to modest improvements in gross margin, controlled costs, and operational leverage.
Year-to-date, United Spirits stock has declined by 7%, in contrast to a 4% increase in the NIFTY index. JPMorgan believes that revisions in earnings per share and improved growth visibility compared to staple peers could support the stock’s performance, despite recent gains from three-month lows.
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