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Investing.com - Barclays (LON:BARC) downgraded Julius Baer Group Ltd. (SIX:BAER) (OTC:JBAXY) from Overweight to Equalweight and lowered its price target to CHF56.70 from CHF65.00 on Monday.
The downgrade reflects six specific concerns identified by the investment bank, including expectations of gross margin deterioration in the second half of 2025 due to low volatility, which could lead to reduced activity-driven income compared to the exceptionally high levels seen in the first four months of 2025.
Barclays expressed caution about Julius Baer’s net new money outlook, noting management’s maintained full-year guidance of approximately 3% despite strong first-half exit rates, and cited a more negative assets under management outlook compared to initial assumptions and consensus estimates.
The investment bank also highlighted concerns about trapped excess capital despite Julius Baer’s strong capital generation, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and magnitude of future distributions, and noted that no share buybacks are expected before fiscal year 2025 results at the earliest.
Additional factors influencing the downgrade include the ongoing credit review under a newly appointed Chief Risk Officer and execution risks associated with the cultural shift and front office operating model changes initiated by Julius Baer’s new CEO.
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