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On Thursday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods made an adjustment to their financial outlook on MFA Financial Inc . (NYSE:MFA), setting a new price target of $12.50, down from the previous $13.50. Despite the reduction, the firm maintained its Outperform rating for the real estate investment trust.
The adjustment comes after a review of the company’s economic book value, which saw a decline of 3.7% to $13.93, and a tangible book value (TBV) calculation of $13.34. Trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.57, the stock appears attractively valued compared to its peers. The management of MFA Financial noted that the book value has remained flat since the beginning of the quarter.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose T. George provided insights into the revised financial forecasts, indicating a reduction in the fiscal year 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates to $1.35 and $1.40 per share, respectively, from the earlier projections of $1.59 and $1.68. The lowered return on equity (ROE) reflects the runoff of lower-cost interest rate swaps.
George’s analysis suggests that the company’s economic ROE is around 10%, with expectations that distributable earnings (DE) will align with the quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, implying a breakeven ROE of approximately 10.5% by year-end. The new price target of $12.50 is set at roughly 94% of the tangible book value, taking into account the reduced book value for the quarter and the lower earnings outlook.
Despite the lowered price target, the analyst believes that MFA Financial’s shares still present an attractive risk/reward profile. This perspective is based on the stock currently trading at 77% of its tangible book value and offering a substantial dividend yield of 13.6%. According to InvestingPro, the company has maintained dividend payments for 27 consecutive years, demonstrating remarkable consistency. The firm’s stance remains positive, as indicated by the maintained Outperform rating. Get access to detailed dividend analysis and 12+ additional ProTips for MFA Financial with an InvestingPro subscription, including comprehensive Pro Research Reports that transform complex Wall Street data into actionable intelligence.
In other recent news, MFA Financial Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, which showed a slight miss in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analysts’ forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.39, just below the expected $0.3954, and revenue of $50.8 million, significantly under the anticipated $90.38 million. Despite these shortfalls, MFA Financial remains optimistic about future growth opportunities, projecting an economic return of around 10% in 2025. The company plans to expand its agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio and anticipates Lima One originations to reach approximately $1.5 billion.
In other developments, MFA Financial has been active in strategic investments, adding over $1.2 billion in loans and securities during the quarter, and expanding its agency securities portfolio by 50% to $1.4 billion. The firm also executed three securitizations in the fourth quarter on over $1 billion of loans, including RTL, NonQM, and NPL loans. Analyst feedback from firms such as KBW and UBS highlighted concerns over the revenue miss and the increase in delinquencies within transitional loan portfolios. Despite these challenges, MFA Financial’s management expressed confidence in the company’s portfolio and its long-term earnings potential.
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