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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has refreshed its gold equity outlook for 2025, raising long-term price assumptions and highlighting opportunities across both mid- and large-cap Australian miners.
In a note on Thursday, the bank lifted its long-term gold price forecast to US$3,300/oz from 2029 onwards, up from US$2,850/oz previously.
Goldman said its global commodities team “remains positive on gold,” outlining upside risk to US$4,500–5,000/oz.
The analysts noted that the revision comes “following continued upward momentum in gold prices and equities.”
On stock preferences, Goldman Sachs said the risk/reward profile “remains skewed more positively for CMM, WGX, BGL, and PNR (all Buy-rated) in the mid-caps, with NST (Buy) well-placed in the large cap names.”
Among global majors, Newmont remains rated Neutral, but with “a positive production/FCF/capital management outlook.”
The analysts also modelled scenarios in which gold prices either retrace by 20% to around US$2,800/oz or rise to US$4,500/oz.
In both cases, Goldman argued that “CMM, NST, PNR and BGL (Buys) remain relatively cheap vs. their respective peers, while WGX (Buy) remains a standout on gold price upside.”
Goldman further highlighted margin expansion as a key driver of equity outperformance in the sector.
“We continue to expect this gold equities cycle to continue, with gold stocks well positioned to continue to outperform the commodity through 2025 supported by margin expansion,” the bank said.
Goldman added that the trend has already doubled the market capitalisation of the Australian gold sector in the past year, rising from about A$70 billion to A$135 billion, while global gold majors have expanded from US$135 billion to US$270 billion.