Keefe raises AppFolio stock target to $210, keeps Underperform rating

Published 31/01/2025, 14:40
Keefe raises AppFolio stock target to $210, keeps Underperform rating

On Friday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods adjusted their financial outlook on AppFolio (NASDAQ:APPF), increasing the price target to $210.00 from the previous $193.00, while maintaining an Underperform rating on the company’s shares. The revision follows AppFolio’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which prompted the firm to alter its expectations for the company’s financial performance over the next two years.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have revised their non-GAAP operating income and EPS projections for AppFolio for the years 2025-2026, decreasing estimates by an average of 2%. This adjustment is attributed to higher expenses that are anticipated to outpace the company’s stronger revenue growth. Despite the increase in the price target, the Underperform rating was reaffirmed by the firm due to concerns about the company’s future earnings potential.

AppFolio’s guidance for 2025 revenue growth aligns closely with the consensus, but the company’s operating margin guidance falls significantly short, suggesting limited margin expansion. This has led to operating income guidance that is 7% below the consensus at the midpoint. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analysts believe that as AppFolio experiences a substantial slowdown in revenue growth in 2025, and as a resurgence in expenses impacts operating leverage and earnings growth, this will likely result in multiple compression for the company’s stock valuation.

The firm also highlighted that AppFolio’s shares are trading at approximately 30 times the estimated EBITDA for 2026, which represents a 20-30% premium compared to peers with similar earnings growth. This valuation is a key factor in the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods’ decision to maintain the Underperform rating despite the raised price target. The analysts expect that the premium valuation, in conjunction with the forecasted challenges in revenue growth and margin expansion, may affect investor sentiment towards AppFolio stock.

In other recent news, AppFolio Inc. reported significant revenue growth for Q4 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 19% to $204 million. The full-year 2024 revenue reached $794 million, a 28% increase from 2023. The company also launched new AI capabilities and expanded its customer base. Despite these positive financial results, AppFolio’s stock fell by 3.19% in aftermarket trading. The company has projected an optimistic outlook for 2025, forecasting annual revenue between $920 million and $940 million, which would represent a 17% growth.

AppFolio’s robust financial performance was driven by product innovations and a larger customer base. The company’s Q4 2024 earnings per share (EPS) and revenue figures were not explicitly compared to forecasts in the provided data. However, the company’s strong revenue growth aligns with its upward trajectory, despite a notable number of EPS downward revisions in the past 90 days.

CEO Shane Trigg underscored the company’s vision, stating, "We are truly building the platform where the real estate industry comes to do business." He highlighted the potential of AI in property management. These are recent developments and demonstrate the company’s commitment to growth and innovation.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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