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On Friday, Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) retained its Outperform rating and $240.00 price target from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, following the insurance giant’s disclosure of January catastrophe losses. The losses were primarily due to the California wildfires, totaling $1.08 billion, or $849 million after tax. This figure includes the FAIR Plan assessment and is net of reinsurance recoveries amounting to $1.40 billion. The reported losses align with the estimates provided during Allstate’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, which projected approximately $1.1 billion in wildfire-related losses. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows Allstate maintains a GREAT financial health score of 3.17, with strong profitability metrics and a 14-year track record of consecutive dividend increases.
In addition to the catastrophe losses, Allstate reported on its policies in force (PIF) growth for the month, noting a slight deceleration in the year-over-year decrease in auto PIF. The January 2025 auto PIF decrease stood at -1.3%, improving from the -1.4% recorded in December 2024. These figures suggest a stabilization that supports Keefe, Bruyette & Woods’ expectation of Allstate’s return to positive PIF growth in the year 2025.
The firm’s analysts have maintained their earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Allstate at $17.50 for the year 2025 and $20.75 for the year 2026. The $240.00 price target is based on 11.6 times the firm’s projected 2026 earnings per share. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods’ reiteration of the Outperform rating indicates their continued confidence in Allstate’s performance and recovery prospects.
The financial performance and growth metrics of Allstate are closely monitored by investors, as they reflect the company’s ability to manage risks, particularly in the face of significant insurance events like the California wildfires. The maintenance of the Outperform rating and price target by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods suggests that Allstate is navigating these challenges effectively, with expectations for positive momentum in the near future.
In other recent news, Allstate Corporation has reported significant financial developments impacting its investors. The company disclosed estimated catastrophe losses of $1.08 billion in January, primarily due to California wildfires. Additionally, Allstate reported a decrease in auto policies and commercial lines, while homeowners’ policies saw a slight increase. Analysts have been adjusting their outlooks in response to these events. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained a Strong Buy rating with a $240 price target, citing high single-digit net premium growth expectations through 2026 despite recent wildfire losses. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also raised their price target to $240, maintaining an Outperform rating, based on improved core loss ratios and expectations of organic growth in personal auto policies. CFRA upgraded Allstate to a Strong Buy with a $230 target, emphasizing the company’s manageable level of claims from wildfires and strategic pricing discipline. Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets reiterated an Outperform rating with a $222 target, noting Allstate’s solid margins and policy-in-force figures despite retention challenges in specific markets. These developments reflect a complex landscape for Allstate as it navigates financial impacts and strategic adjustments.
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