KeyBanc cuts Dayforce stock price target to $65, maintains overweight

Published 22/04/2025, 12:54
KeyBanc cuts Dayforce stock price target to $65, maintains overweight

On Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Dayforce (NYSE: DAY), reducing the price target from $80.00 to $65.00, yet affirming its Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment reflects a recalibration in response to the recent downturn in software valuations, with the stock currently trading at $52.33 and down nearly 28% year-to-date, according to InvestingPro data.

Jason Celino of KeyBanc expressed confidence in Dayforce’s ability to deliver first-quarter results that align with expectations, particularly in terms of recurring revenue (excluding float) and potential outperformance in EBITDA, which currently stands at $240.3 million. The company’s impressive gross margin of 50.71% and operational expenditure scaling were cited as contributing factors to these anticipated outcomes. InvestingPro analysis reveals 10+ additional financial health indicators for deeper insight into Dayforce’s performance.

Looking ahead to 2025, Celino anticipates that Dayforce will likely uphold its constant currency Dayforce recurring revenue growth forecast of 15-17% and an EBITDA margin target of 32%. The analyst commended Dayforce for its execution capabilities within the challenging human capital management (HCM) sector. The company has successfully implemented strategic initiatives, including targeting larger market segments, expanding internationally, growing its partner network, and increasing Wallet adoption.

These strategic moves are expected to position Dayforce as a company capable of consistent 20%+ free cash flow growth over the medium term. Despite the price target reduction, KeyBanc’s Overweight rating remains intact, with the new target based on a 15.5x 2026 enterprise value to EBITDA multiple. This revision accounts for the recent pullback in software valuations and maintains a positive outlook on Dayforce’s financial growth trajectory.

In other recent news, Dayforce, Inc. reported several significant developments. The company announced a restructuring plan that involves a workforce reduction of approximately 5%, aiming for pre-tax cost savings of about $65 million for the fiscal year 2025 and an annualized run-rate basis of $80 million. This move is part of Dayforce’s strategy to drive profitable growth, with a portion of the savings intended for reinvestment in strategic growth initiatives. Additionally, Dayforce has amended its credit agreement, resulting in reduced interest rates on its term and revolving loans, facilitated by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) Bank. This financial adjustment is expected to enhance the company’s fiscal sustainability by lowering borrowing costs.

On the analyst front, TD Cowen upgraded Dayforce’s stock rating to Buy, raising the price target to $68.00, citing the company’s underappreciated free cash flow margin expansion. Analyst Jared Levine expressed optimism about Dayforce’s financial health, expecting the company to exceed medium-term free cash flow expectations. Furthermore, Dayforce disclosed its 2025 Management Incentive Plan, setting performance-based incentive compensation for executives, including significant equity awards. The plan aligns executive interests with the company’s financial targets, focusing on revenue growth and free cash flow margin. These recent developments reflect Dayforce’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial performance and shareholder value.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.