KeyBanc cuts Murphy USA stock target to $525, keeps Overweight

Published 09/05/2025, 14:06
KeyBanc cuts Murphy USA stock target to $525, keeps Overweight

On Friday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its financial outlook for Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA), reducing the company’s price target from $550.00 to $525.00. Despite the decrease, the firm maintained its Overweight rating on the stock. The revision follows Murphy USA’s first-quarter earnings, which fell short of analysts’ expectations, influenced by several adverse factors. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has recently taken a significant hit, dropping nearly 12% in the past week, though it maintains a market capitalization of $8.8 billion. Current analyst targets range from $400 to $600, reflecting mixed sentiment about the company’s near-term prospects.

Bradley Thomas of KeyBanc noted that the company’s first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were below Wall Street estimates, impacted by lower-than-anticipated retail fuel margins. This underperformance was also attributed to reduced fuel volumes, which were affected by a range of issues including unfavorable weather conditions, the timing shift of Easter, the absence of Leap Day compared to last year, and a generally low retail fuel price environment. InvestingPro data reveals that despite these challenges, Murphy USA maintains strong profitability metrics, with a return on equity of 65% and an EBITDA of nearly $1 billion in the last twelve months. Get access to 10+ additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.

Looking into the second quarter to date, Murphy USA’s situation appears to be improving, with fuel volume remaining steady or showing a slight increase, and retail fuel margins experiencing a rise. Thomas emphasized that while fuel margins can cause volatile quarterly earnings, they are expected to be a long-term benefit for the company, particularly with ongoing industry consolidation. The company’s financial health score from InvestingPro is rated as "FAIR," with particularly strong scores in profitability metrics, suggesting resilience despite current market challenges.

KeyBanc’s analysis suggests that investors should look beyond the short-term fluctuations in fuel margins. The firm continues to endorse a positive long-term perspective for Murphy USA and the broader industry, as indicated in its recent initiation report. However, the firm acknowledges potential near-term challenges for the company, including the impact of persistently low gas prices, increased competition in the food segment, and difficult comparisons in the nicotine category for the second quarter.

Despite these headwinds, KeyBanc’s stance on Murphy USA remains optimistic, particularly regarding the company’s Every Day Low Price (EDLP) model and the acceleration of store growth. The revised price target of $525 reflects adjusted earnings estimates and takes into account the current business environment as outlined by Thomas.

In other recent news, Murphy USA reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, which fell short of analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.63, missing the forecasted $3.93, while revenue came in at $4.53 billion, below the projected $4.8 billion. Stephens analyst Pooran Sharma adjusted the price target for Murphy USA to $475 from $530, maintaining an Overweight rating despite the earnings miss. Similarly, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Bobby Griffin downgraded the stock to Market Perform, citing concerns about the company’s ability to grow its core EBITDA. The analysts noted challenges such as declining same-store sales and operational expenses from new stores. Despite these setbacks, Murphy USA continues its expansion efforts, adding eight new stores in the first quarter. The company remains focused on value offerings and market share growth, with expectations for supply margins to normalize in the second half of 2025.

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