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On Friday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Rubrik Inc (NYSE:RBRK) by reducing the price target from $87.00 to $82.00. Despite this change, the firm maintained its Overweight rating on the company’s stock. Currently trading at $68.65, Rubrik has seen an impressive 81.25% gain over the past six months, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is trading above its Fair Value. The adjustment followed Rubrik’s announcement of robust fourth fiscal quarter results and a promising guide for fiscal year 2026 that exceeded expectations.
Rubrik reported a significant annual recurring revenue (ARR) beat of $33 million for the fourth fiscal quarter, continuing a similar trend from the previous three quarters. The company’s ARR growth accelerated by one percentage point to 37%, building on its strong revenue growth of 33.22% over the last twelve months. With a robust gross margin of 69.22%, Rubrik’s operating margin for the same period was -11%, which was an improvement of 17 percentage points over expectations. InvestingPro subscribers can access 7 additional key tips about Rubrik’s financial health and growth prospects.
Looking forward, Rubrik has provided guidance for fiscal year 2026 ARR that is $42 million above the consensus, indicating a strong outlook. This optimism is reflected in analyst consensus, with targets ranging from $47 to $90 and a strong buy recommendation rating of 1.41. However, the guidance appears conservative as it includes a year-over-year decline in net new ARR in the double digits. KeyBanc analysts highlighted the robust results from Rubrik and Commvault, as well as positive performance from private vendors, as evidence of acceleration in the backup and recovery market. For deeper insights into Rubrik’s valuation and growth metrics, check out the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
The market’s growth is driven by several factors, including the displacement of legacy systems, an increase in addressable workloads, enhanced security functionality, and a shift towards Backup as a Service (BaaS). KeyBanc remains optimistic about Rubrik’s growth potential and has raised its ARR estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by approximately 4%.
The decision to lower the price target to $82 is attributed to lower peer multiples, as explained by KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath. Despite the reduced price target, the firm’s Overweight rating signals confidence in Rubrik’s continued performance and potential for growth within the accelerating backup and recovery market.
In other recent news, Rubrik Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations with a revenue of $258 million, marking a 47% increase year-over-year. The company’s Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $1.093 billion, a 39% increase from the previous year. Analysts have responded to these results with mixed adjustments to their price targets for Rubrik. Rosenblatt Securities raised its target to $82, maintaining a Buy rating, while Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reduced its target to $75 but retained an Outperform rating. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an $85 target with an Overweight rating, expressing confidence in Rubrik’s strategic position in the market. Guggenheim also kept a Buy rating with a $76 target, highlighting Rubrik’s substantial growth in new subscription ARR. Rubrik’s optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2026 includes a projected revenue increase of 30%, with expectations of continued growth in Subscription ARR and Free Cash Flow, driven by the company’s focus on data protection and cyber resilience.
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