KeyBanc raises Diversified Energy stock to Overweight

Published 07/01/2025, 12:52
KeyBanc raises Diversified Energy stock to Overweight

On Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its stance on Diversified Energy Company (NYSE:DEC), upgrading the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight and increasing the price target to $19.00 from $18.00. Currently trading at $16.68, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued, with analyst targets ranging from $19 to $27.

The upgrade comes in the wake of Diversified Energy's announcement of a $45 million acquisition that is expected to be accretive to earnings. The deal, funded from existing liquidity, is set to expand Diversified's working interest in coal mine methane (CMM) wells, which are known for fetching premium realizations due to their environmental credits.

Analysts at KeyBanc highlighted the strategic importance of the acquisition, noting the additional exposure to CMM wells could lead to higher EBITDA through premium realizations in certain local hubs. They pointed out that CMM production is already generating substantial EBITDA for Diversified, with expectations of $8 million to $10 million in EBITDA for 2024. The company's current EBITDA stands at $493.31 million, while maintaining an attractive 4.87% dividend yield and a modest P/E ratio of 5.6x.

The analysts also clarified that the CMM opportunity is separate from the 45V tax credits, suggesting that the market may have misjudged Diversified's stock, which saw a 4.7% decline over Friday and Monday, in contrast to a broader market uptick.

Despite recent volatility, InvestingPro data shows the stock has delivered a strong 26.39% return over the past six months and is trading near its 52-week high of $17.70.Want deeper insights? InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 30 additional financial metrics and exclusive analysis tools to make more informed investment decisions.

This misjudgment was attributed to the market associating Diversified with Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX)'s recent 18.8% drop after reconsidering its hydrogen plant plans due to changes in 45V tax credit regulations by the Treasury Department.

KeyBanc expressed confidence in Diversified's potential, especially given the larger set of opportunities in CMM, independent of the 45V tax credits. This optimism is reflected in the broader analyst consensus, which maintains a bullish outlook on the stock.

While they sought details from management regarding the 2025 EBITDA outlook following the recent acquisition, specifics were not provided.

Nonetheless, the increased price target to $19 reflects the anticipated upside from CMM operations in 2025 and beyond. The firm reiterated its Overweight rating, with estimate increases reflecting the expected contribution from the newly announced acquisition.

In other recent news, Diversified Energy Co. announced its third-quarter financial results and a dividend declaration, signaling a positive financial health. In addition to this, the company has been expanding its operations, with a $69 million acquisition of natural gas properties in East Texas and a $106 million acquisition from Crescent Pass Energy.

Truist Securities raised its price target for Diversified Energy from $19.00 to $21.00, maintaining a Buy rating, based on the company's Free Cash Flow (FCF) potential from its Coal Mine Methane (CMM) capture activities.

Furthermore, Diversified Energy has expanded its financial disclosures, now including details about its CMM capture activities. This move is expected to enhance the company's FCF through the sale of environmental credits. Truist Securities believes that the environmental credit sales could significantly add more than $4.00 per share to Diversified Energy's base business value.

KeyBanc Capital Markets has also initiated coverage on the company's shares, assigning an Overweight rating and setting a price target of $18.00. These are the recent developments for Diversified Energy as it continues to make strides in its sector. Lastly, the company is set to join the Russell 2000 Index, a move expected to increase its visibility in the U.S. investment community.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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