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On Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts provided insights into the potential effects of the newly published draft of the budget reconciliation bill on various sectors within the energy industry. The draft, released by the House Ways and Means Committee, proposes several amendments to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provisions, including expedited phase-outs of the Investment Tax Credit ( ITC (NSE:ITC)), Production Tax Credit ( PTC (NASDAQ:PTC)), and Advanced Manufacturing Credit (AMC), and the elimination of transferability within two years.
The analysts, Sophie Karp and Sangita Jain, noted that while the draft bill is broadly a negative when compared to the current situation, it aligns with investor expectations except for the accelerated phase-out of the nuclear PTC, which they view as an incremental negative. They anticipate that industry groups will offer feedback on the proposed changes, potentially leading to revisions of the draft.
According to the analysts, the draft bill’s implications are a mild negative to neutral for renewable energy developers like NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), CMS Energy (NYSE:CMS), Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:XEL), and WEC Energy Group (NYSE:WEC). For companies like Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN), Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH), and SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG), the impact is seen as near-term positive but long-term negative.
The draft also presents a negative outlook for nuclear operators such as Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG), Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE:PEG), and Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK). However, it is considered a near-term positive for renewable-linked engineering and construction (E&C) stocks like Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR), MasTec (NYSE:MTZ), Primoris Services (NASDAQ:NYSE:PRIM), and MYR Group (NASDAQ:MYRG), with the long-term impact dependent on future credit renewals.
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is specifically highlighted as facing a negative impact due to the proposed one-year acceleration of the AMC phase-out. The change could result in approximately $442 million in lost earnings for 2032, with a present value of $258 million, or $2.41 per share. The analysts underscore that the expectation for the AMC to be extended beyond 2032 should now be heavily discounted. Furthermore, they note that First Solar’s current domestic capacity is fully utilized, and while demand pull-forward could be addressed through Southeast Asian capacity, this would depend on reductions in international tariffs. For investors seeking deeper insights into the E&C sector, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis of companies like Primoris, which has maintained dividend payments for 18 consecutive years and shows strong momentum with a significant return over the last week. Access the full Pro Research Report to explore 10+ additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics.
In other recent news, Primoris Services Corporation reported a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, significantly exceeding earnings expectations. The company announced an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.98, surpassing the forecasted $0.60, and generated revenue of $1.65 billion, outpacing the anticipated $1.49 billion. Primoris attributed its revenue growth to advancements in renewable energy projects and infrastructure, particularly in solar and fiber network builds. Despite this financial success, the company’s stock saw a minor decline of 0.4% in after-hours trading. The company also reported record cash from operations and maintained a strong liquidity position, with $66.2 million in cash flow from operations. Analysts from firms like CJS Securities and Jefferies expressed confidence in the company’s ability to meet its full-year EPS guidance, which is set between $3.7 and $3.9, with adjusted EPS guidance at $4.2 to $4.4. Primoris remains focused on its strategic initiatives in renewable energy and infrastructure, positioning itself for future growth. The company is optimistic about accelerating bookings in the latter half of the year, despite potential challenges from trade policies and tariffs.
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