Keybanc sees growth potential in stocks from GLP-1 deals with Lilly and Novo

Investing.com - KeyBanc highlights significant growth potential for several stocks following recent White House and direct-to-consumer GLP-1 deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, according to a research note from analyst Paul Knight.

The GLP-1 market, previously expected to reach $58 billion by 2028, is now projected to hit $132 billion, according to Evaluate Pharma estimates cited by KeyBanc. This growth momentum was evident in third-quarter results, with West Pharmaceutical Services (NYSE:WST) growing GLP-1 revenue by approximately 40% and Stevanato Group (NYSE:STVN) seeing 47% growth in high-value products.

On November 16, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) entered an agreement with the White House to reduce GLP-1 drug prices for Medicare/Medicaid beneficiaries starting April 1, 2026. This expansion of Medicare coverage beyond diabetes into obesity treatment could benefit approximately 10 million patients, potentially creating demand for 480 million auto-injectors annually.

Both pharmaceutical companies are also lowering prices on their direct-to-consumer platforms. Lilly announced on November 6 it would reduce Zepbound prices to $299/month at the lowest dose, while Novo Nordisk announced on November 17 a 30% price reduction for self-pay patients to $349.

KeyBanc identifies Waters Corporation (NYSE:WAT), West Pharmaceutical Services, Stevanato Group, and Ypsomed (SWX:YPSN) as beneficiaries of this trend, particularly as manufacturers ramp up capacity investments to meet growing global demand for GLP-1 medications.

In other recent news, AptarGroup Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, exceeding analysts’ expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62, compared to the forecast of $1.57. Despite this earnings beat, the company’s stock experienced a decline due to broader market concerns and specific guidance issues. Additionally, S&P Global Ratings upgraded AptarGroup to a ’BBB’ rating from ’BBB-’ with a stable outlook, highlighting the company’s low debt leverage and conservative financial policy. The agency noted that AptarGroup’s adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.2x as of the end of September 2025 and has remained stable over the past five years.

In contrast, William Blair downgraded AptarGroup’s stock rating from Outperform to Market Perform. This downgrade was attributed to concerns about the company’s growth prospects over the coming quarters, particularly due to ongoing Narcan-related challenges. These recent developments provide investors with a mixed view of AptarGroup’s current financial standing and future outlook.

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