Mizuho cuts CrowdStrike price target to $410, keeps Outperform

On Wednesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities maintained an Outperform rating on CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) stock, but reduced the price target to $410 from the previous $450. According to InvestingPro data, CrowdStrike now commands a market capitalization of $96.1 billion and trades at premium valuation multiples. The adjustment follows CrowdStrike’s financial report for the end of fiscal year 2025, which included a total annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $4.24 billion, marking a 23.5% year-over-year increase. This figure surpassed both Mizuho’s and the Street’s forecast of $4.21 billion, which anticipated a 22.5% growth.

Despite the strong ARR performance, CrowdStrike’s guidance for the first quarter and the full fiscal year 2026 met expectations, but the earnings per share (EPS) estimates were lowered due to a higher anticipated tax rate. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains robust financial health with a "GOOD" overall score, supported by impressive revenue growth of 31.35% and a healthy gross margin of 75.24%. Furthermore, free cash flow (FCF) is projected to stay lower until fiscal year 2027. On a positive note, CrowdStrike plans to conclude its customer commitment packages (CCP) earlier than anticipated, which, according to Mizuho, sets a clear course for acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year. Additionally, the adoption of the Falcon Flex (NASDAQ:FLEX) program is gaining momentum.

Mizuho’s analyst highlighted the strength of CrowdStrike’s cloud security platform, its go-to-market strategy, and its success in expanding beyond traditional endpoint security markets. The firm’s normalized free cash flow margins are still around 30%, reinforcing the analyst’s confidence in CrowdStrike’s financial health.

In summary, while the price target for CrowdStrike stock has been lowered due to reduced comparable company multiples, Mizuho continues to recommend the stock with an Outperform rating, signaling a positive outlook on its future performance.

In other recent news, CrowdStrike Holdings reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations in revenue, profitability, and free cash flow. JPMorgan’s Brian Essex maintained an Overweight rating with a $450 price target, highlighting the positive impact of CrowdStrike’s emerging products like the Exposure Management product. Citizens JMP’s Trevor Walsh also reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating with a $400 price target, emphasizing CrowdStrike’s recovery from a past outage and growth in key product areas such as Falcon Cloud Security. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James increased its price target to $390, noting potential growth acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year despite slightly below expectations net new annual recurring revenue (NNARR). Jefferies adjusted its price target to $425 from $450 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing confidence in the company’s market position despite near-term uncertainties. DA Davidson raised its price target to $415, acknowledging robust NNARR figures that surpassed consensus estimates. Analysts across these firms expressed optimism about CrowdStrike’s growth trajectory and its strategic initiatives in the competitive cybersecurity landscape. Despite some conservative forward guidance, expectations for margin expansion and long-term revenue growth remain positive.

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