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On Friday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities maintained an Outperform rating on Rubrik Inc (NYSE:RBRK) but reduced the price target to $75 from the previous $82. The adjustment follows Rubrik’s announcement of its fiscal fourth quarter results, which surpassed expectations. With a current market capitalization of $10.24 billion and impressive gross margins of 69%, Rubrik reported a Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1.093 billion, a 39% increase year-over-year, which notably exceeded both Mizuho’s and the broader market’s forecast of 35%. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s overall revenue growth remains strong at 33.22% over the last twelve months.
The company’s net new subscription ARR saw a significant 53% year-over-year surge, amounting to approximately $90 million. A standout within these figures was the Cloud ARR, which grew by 67% compared to the same period last year. Following the report, Rubrik’s stock experienced a 16% jump in after-hours trading. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently overvalued, despite showing strong momentum with an 81.25% price return over the past six months. Analyst targets range from $47 to $90, reflecting diverse views on the company’s valuation.
Mizuho’s analyst highlighted Rubrik’s strong performance and the company’s guidance for fiscal year 2026, which indicates expectations for continued robust growth in Subscription ARR and Free Cash Flow (FCF) well above market consensus. This optimistic outlook is bolstered by the company’s focus on data protection and operationalization, as well as its leading defenses against ransomware, which the analyst believes sets Rubrik apart from most competitors in the industry.
Despite the positive performance and outlook, the price target was adjusted to reflect recent compression in comparative multiples. Mizuho’s analyst reiterated confidence in Rubrik’s growth trajectory and market position, which supports the decision to maintain the Outperform rating even with the revised price target.
In other recent news, Rubrik Inc. reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.18, significantly better than the forecasted -$0.38, and reported revenue of $258 million, marking a 47% year-over-year increase. Rubrik’s Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) also grew by 39% year-over-year, reaching $1.093 billion. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald and Guggenheim maintained positive ratings on Rubrik, with price targets set at $85 and $76, respectively, citing the company’s robust growth and strategic positioning in the cybersecurity market.
Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted Rubrik’s strong fourth-quarter performance, noting that the company exceeded FactSet consensus estimates in key financial areas such as revenue, subscription ARR, operating income, and free cash flow. Guggenheim praised Rubrik’s substantial business momentum, driven by a 52% increase in New Subscription ARR and a 66% rise in New Total (EPA:TTEF) ARR, largely attributed to the company’s focus on security. Rubrik’s strategic emphasis on cyber resilience and data security continues to resonate with customers, as evidenced by its successful new business acquisitions and improved margins.
Looking ahead, Rubrik has provided optimistic guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting a 30% increase in top-line revenue, a 24% rise in subscription ARR, and a 55% growth in free cash flow at the midpoint. The company remains confident in its ability to capitalize on industry trends such as cloud computing and data resilience, as well as its partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), which has bolstered its market reach. These developments underscore Rubrik’s momentum and strategic positioning within the competitive cloud data management sector.
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