Mizuho lifts Matador Resources stock target to $77, keeps Outperform

Published 19/02/2025, 13:42
Mizuho lifts Matador Resources stock target to $77, keeps Outperform

On Wednesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities revised its price target for Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) stock, increasing it to $77 from the previous $73 while retaining an Outperform rating on the shares. The adjustment follows the company’s announcement of its capital expenditure budget for 2025, which met analyst expectations, and its full-year oil production guidance, which, although anticipated to be higher by some, did not disappoint. According to InvestingPro data, eight analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting broad analyst confidence in the company’s prospects. The stock currently trades below its Fair Value, presenting a potential opportunity for investors.

The first quarter volume guidance for 2025 was more than 5% below expectations, which was seen as a letdown. This shortfall was primarily attributed to the timing of turned in line (TIL) wells. However, the initial quarter’s capital expenditure guidance was higher than anticipated, with about 30% of the full year’s budget expected to be spent in the first quarter. Despite these near-term concerns, InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains strong financial health with a "GREAT" overall score, supported by impressive revenue growth of 33.91% over the last twelve months.

Despite these concerns, Mizuho noted several positive aspects in Matador Resources’ report. Operational costs were better than expected, with fourth-quarter lease operating expenses (LOE) decreasing approximately 2% quarter over quarter and roughly 7% below the lower end of the guidance range. Additionally, the initial production results from the company’s latest U-turn wells were strong.

Looking beyond the weaker guidance for the first quarter’s volume and capital expenditures, Mizuho remains optimistic about Matador Resources’ prospects. The firm highlighted Matador’s potential for differentiated oil growth, estimating about a 10% exit-to-exit increase. The company also exhibits modest financial leverage, with a projected year-end 2025 net debt to EBITDA multiple of around 1.0x, and an attractive relative valuation with favorable free cash flow to enterprise value metrics.

In conclusion, the raised net asset value-based price target to $77 from $73 reflects Mizuho’s confidence in Matador Resources’ performance and growth potential, despite some near-term guidance that fell short of expectations. The Outperform rating remains unchanged, indicating the firm’s positive outlook on the stock’s future performance.

In other recent news, Matador Resources has been a focal point for analysts, with several firms adjusting their price targets and maintaining positive ratings. JPMorgan raised its price target for Matador Resources to $75.00, citing anticipated positive operational performance. The company’s preliminary guidance for 2025 predicts production to exceed 200 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d). The firm also highlighted a planned increase in drilling and completion capital expenditures for 2025.

Simultaneously, TD Cowen adjusted its price target for Matador Resources to $75, based on recent meetings with key company executives. The discussions centered on efficiency gains, synergy capture, and well productivity, which are anticipated to boost performance in the coming year. The firm also noted the potential for future growth from the Pronto drop-down transaction in the midstream sector.

Stephens, another financial services firm, increased its price target on Matador Resources to $80.00, following the recent sale of Pronto Midstream assets to San Mateo. The sale, which generated nearly $300 million in cash for Matador, led Stephens to increase their net asset value estimate for the company. Lastly, TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $74.00 price target for Matador Resources, citing positive takeaways from a recent energy conference and potential operational advancements. These are some of the recent developments revolving around Matador Resources.

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