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Thursday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) analysts adjusted their outlook on Nutrien (NYSE: NYSE:NTR) shares, raising the price target from $52.00 to $55.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a GOOD financial health score and offers a substantial 4.12% dividend yield, having raised dividends for 7 consecutive years. The stock currently trades below its Fair Value, suggesting potential upside opportunity. The revision follows Nutrien’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which revealed an EBITDA of $1.06 billion, surpassing the Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) USA estimate and Bloomberg consensus of $982 million and $957 million, respectively. The company’s strong performance contributes to its trailing twelve-month revenue of $25.02 billion, though analysts anticipate a sales decline in the current year.
Nutrien’s earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter stood at $0.31, a 16% decline year-over-year, compared to the $0.35 and $0.37 estimates from Morgan Stanley USA and consensus. The company’s Retail segment outperformed expectations by $164 million, and its nitrogen segment exceeded forecasts by $56 million. However, these gains were partially negated by lower results in the potash, phosphate, and corporate segments, which fell short by $67 million, $32 million, and $45 million, respectively.
Looking ahead to 2025, Nutrien has provided guidance that suggests flat year-over-year potash volume, while projecting a 2% increase in both nitrogen and phosphate sales volumes. Additionally, the company anticipates a 3% rise in Retail EBITDA. With analyst targets ranging from $48 to $70 per share, InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed analysis and 8 additional ProTips to better understand the company’s growth prospects and valuation metrics.
The report mentioned improvements in the agricultural complex narrative since the USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The WASDE indicated tighter-than-expected corn supply/demand trends, leading to a rise in corn prices. This, along with favorable crop outlooks and production curtailments, is expected to push potash prices higher in the near term. Despite these factors, Mizuho analysts expressed caution, noting that the potential for sustained higher fertilizer prices remains uncertain and could affect market sentiment towards Nutrien stock.
In other recent news, Nutrien Ltd has been in the spotlight following several significant developments. Nutrien’s earnings outlook has been influenced by a production cut from Belarusian potash supplier Belaruskali, which has reduced its output by approximately 1 million tonnes. This reduction is expected to sustain or increase potash prices, potentially benefiting Nutrien. In analyst updates, Barclays (LON:BARC) downgraded Nutrien’s stock from Overweight to Equal Weight, citing balanced risks amid global supply constraints, while Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to Overweight, driven by an improved outlook for grain prices. Piper Sandler set a new price target of $58.00, reflecting confidence in Nutrien’s ability to capitalize on favorable agricultural conditions.
Additionally, JPMorgan upgraded Nutrien’s stock from Underweight to Neutral, noting stronger agricultural fundamentals and increased demand for crop chemicals due to lower corn yields. BMO Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating and $70.00 price target, emphasizing Nutrien’s strategic focus on optimizing operations and capital allocation. Nutrien’s plans to boost nitrogen production and its strategic initiatives through 2025 and 2026 were highlighted in a recent sell-side update. These developments indicate a dynamic period for Nutrien, with various factors potentially impacting its financial performance and market position.
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