Mizuho reiterates Outperform rating on Carnival stock despite market concerns

Published 29/09/2025, 22:44
Mizuho reiterates Outperform rating on Carnival stock despite market concerns

Investing.com - Mizuho maintained its Outperform rating and $37.00 price target on Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) on Monday, even as the cruise operator’s stock declined following its latest update. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $26 to $43, with the stock currently trading near $29.41.

The research firm acknowledged why the stock was down, citing three key factors: Street cost estimates for 2026 that were approximately 100 basis points too low, hedge fund positioning that was more crowded than anticipated, and market concerns about pricing in Q4 and fiscal year 2026. Despite recent volatility, CCL has delivered impressive returns, with InvestingPro data showing a 65% gain over the past year.

Mizuho specifically noted that Carnival flagged 100 basis points in incremental dry dock costs and 50 basis points from its Celebration ship that weren’t reflected in Street estimates, aligning with the firm’s previous warnings.

Despite these concerns, Mizuho believes the market is overlooking several positive factors, including an upcoming "strong capital return inflection," inherent conservatism in fourth-quarter projections, and encouraging booking commentary for 2026.

The firm also highlighted the potential upside from the ramp-up of Carnival’s Celebration ship and Half Moon Cay private destination, while noting that Carnival trades at approximately 8 times forward EBITDA, making it the least expensive stock in the cruise sector.

In other recent news, Carnival Corporation reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. The company announced an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, exceeding the forecasted $1.32. This represents an 8.33% positive surprise for investors. Additionally, Carnival’s revenue reached $8.2 billion, slightly higher than the anticipated $8.09 billion. These results reflect a strong performance for the company in the third quarter. Despite the positive earnings report, the stock experienced a mixed reaction in the market. Analysts from various firms continue to monitor these developments closely, as they adjust their assessments based on the new financial data.

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